With the House being split by a very thin margin, a handful of pickup seats will determine control of the lower chamber in 2024. As a result, all eyes are on the redistricting cases that could shift the playing field — giving both Republicans and Democrats a chance to flip some key seats.
A number of states are awaiting court decisions regarding their congressional maps, putting both parties on edge as they wait to see which states they should focus their resources on ahead of the 2024 election. Republicans are already declaring victory in North Carolina thanks to a newly approved map, while Democrats are seeking to offset those losses with a map shake-up in New York.
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Here are the redistricting cases that could determine which party wins control of the lower chamber next year:
New York
The top court in New York ruled this month that the state’s congressional map must be redrawn ahead of the next election, handing Democrats a win as they seek to alter boundaries to edge out several incumbent Republicans.
Judges moved to vacate the congressional map that was put into place for the 2022 midterm elections, which ultimately allowed Republicans to flip four seats and win control of the House. Now, Democrats will get a chance to undo those losses by implementing a map that could secure a majority of the state’s seats.
Among the Republican incumbents who could be targeted in this sweep are Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY), Mike Lawler (R-NY), and Marc Molinaro (R-NY), each of whom flipped their seats red during the midterm elections last year with the help of the redrawn map. The trio of freshman lawmakers denounced the court’s decision to redraw the boundaries, lamenting the decision as being politically motivated.
“Albany Democrats will do everything in their power to subvert the will of New Yorkers who rejected their failing progressive agenda, and this push to gerrymander fairly drawn congressional lines is just the most recent iteration of the Democrats’ disregard for Long Island voters,” D’Esposito said.
New York Republicans are likely to challenge any new map that Democrats draw over accusations of gerrymandering, which could result in a drawn-out fight to finalize the 2024 playing field. Any new proposals are likely not to be finalized until February or March next year.
North Carolina
The silver lining for Republicans? Any losses they experience in New York could just be offset in North Carolina, giving them a safety net as they seek to hold on to their slim majority.
The state approved a new map altering all 14 of the state’s districts earlier this year, creating 10 districts that favor Republicans, three that favor a Democrat, and one that would be considered a toss-up. The decision makes it virtually impossible for some incumbent Democrats to hold on to their seats, including those currently held by Reps. Jeff Jackson (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC), and Kathy Manning (D-NC). As a result, all three have announced they would not run for reelection next year.
The maps already are being met with legal challenges from some North Carolina voters who claim the boundaries unfairly target black voters. However, that lawsuit is unlikely to be resolved before the 2024 elections, effectively guaranteeing some pickups for Republicans.
Georgia
Georgia Republicans have finalized a proposal for a new statewide map that dashes Democratic hopes of picking up a House seat in the Peach State next year.
State lawmakers were ordered to redraw congressional boundaries after U.S. District Judge Steve Jones ruled in October that the current map violated the Voting Rights Act. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) signed the new maps into law this December, dealing a blow to Democrats who are looking for opportunities to chip away at the GOP’s already slim majority in the House.
The newly approved map complies with Jones’s ruling that the state must establish a second black-majority district, which is a win for Democrats. However, boundaries were drawn in such a way that it preserves Republican control over nine of the 14 House districts in the state.
The new boundaries could also make things more difficult for Rep. Lucy McBath (D-GA), whose district is being shifted farther into GOP territory.
Louisiana
All eyes are on Louisiana as state officials seek to resolve a long-standing legal fight over its congressional boundaries.
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State legislators are set to meet next month for a special session to redraw its congressional map after a district court threw out its current boundaries earlier this year, ruling it unfairly diluted black voters. As a result, the court ordered lawmakers to create a new map that incorporates a second black-majority district.
The legislature has until Jan. 30, 2024, to finalize its proposal. If it fails to do so, the district court will then take the matter to trial on Feb. 5 to decide on new boundaries.
