There are a little more than 16 months left before the 2024 presidential election, meaning the Republican Party still has time to prioritize several states that could be key to winning the race.
Both parties will seek to hold on to the states they won in 2020; however, if Republicans are able to flip three states that are traditionally Democratic strongholds, President Joe Biden‘s path to victory will be significantly narrower.
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Here are three states Republicans will likely need to prioritize in the 2024 presidential race:
VIRGINIA
Likely the hardest state to win back, Virginia has not been a red state since the 2004 presidential election. If Republicans can flip the state in 2024, it would give the party 13 more points in the Electoral College count.
Republicans were able to secure the governor’s mansion in 2021 after Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) beat Terry McAuliffe, the former governor of Virginia and Democratic nominee. Youngkin’s victory marked a resounding success for the party in a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020.
MINNESOTA
Minnesota, a Democratic stronghold, has gone to Democrats in the last 12 presidential elections, according to 270toWin. The state, which is worth 10 Electoral College votes, has been a safe bet for Democrats during elections, meaning it would be difficult for Republicans to flip in 2024.
However, Republicans only narrowly lost the state in 2016, when then-Republican nominee Donald Trump lost the state to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a slim 1.5%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
At four Electoral College votes, New Hampshire has the smallest value of electoral votes on the list. The two previous states by themselves would not be drastic losses if Democrats lost them in 2024, but losing all three in total would cost Democrats 27 Electoral College votes, giving a potential edge to the Republican Party in the next presidential election.
However, in a recent poll by St. Anselm College Survey Center, 49% of New Hampshire voters said they would vote for Biden if the 2024 election were held today, while only 40% said they would vote for Trump should he be the Republican 2024 nominee.
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Trump is competing for the Republican nomination against Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and former Vice President Mike Pence, among others. While the former president is facing legal woes and a growing number of opponents in the primary race, he is still far ahead of his biggest opponent, DeSantis, by 38%, according to a recent poll.
Biden announced earlier this year that he plans to run for reelection in 2024. When asked by a reporter if his reelection campaign would be “nasty,” Biden said with a laugh that it would depend “on who the nominee is.”
