Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are effectively tied in Michigan among Republican voters in a fresh poll, suggesting the former president may not be as invincible as previously presumed in a 2024 White House primary.
In a survey from the Glengariff Group, Trump led DeSantis 45% to 42% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, with 12% undecided.
The former president’s vulnerability in a primary against DeSantis in Michigan, a key battleground state, is evident among college-educated Republicans and Republicans who support the GOP first and Trump second.
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Among college-educated Republicans, DeSantis led Trump 51% to 37%; among party-first Republicans, the Florida governor led the former president 53% to 33%.
Keeping Trump in the game are his advantages among Republican voters without a college degree and GOP voters who support the former president first and the party second.
Among the former, Trump led DeSantis 55% to 29%; among the latter, he topped Florida’s governor 71% to 24%. This July 13–15 poll, surveying 500 likely Republican primary voters and conducted for The Detroit News, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
“That support, that dominance [Trump has] had on the Republican side, is beginning to wane some,” Glengariff Group pollster Richard Czuba said, although he added: “It’s easy to think: ‘Oh, [Trump is] going to have a race.’ But there is not likely going to be a one-on-one race for the nomination.”
Several Republicans besides Trump are mulling a 2024 campaign, with many signaling that the 45th president running would not keep them on the sidelines.
In 2016, Trump regularly won GOP presidential primaries with just a third of the overall vote, while the several other Republican contenders in that race divvied up the rest.
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Should the former president mount a third White House bid, some Republican operatives say he might overcome opposition to his candidacy in a similar fashion.
