Former President Donald Trump appears to have maintained his strong lead over other competitors in new polling of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers, despite predictions that controversial campaign decisions might hurt him.
In the first Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll, caucusgoers overwhelmingly said that Trump is their first choice, with 42%. While he isn’t the first pick for the majority of Republicans, he holds a significant edge over opponents.
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Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) was the first choice of 19% of likely caucusgoers. Trump holds a 23-point lead on DeSantis, his closest competitor. No other candidates were able to break into double digits in the state, with the closest contender being Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), who boasted 9%.
In response to the poll, DeSantis campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo said, “Donald Trump is leaving the door wide open in the Hawkeye State, and we are capitalizing. The more Iowans see Ron DeSantis in-person, the more his message to reverse our nation’s decline and revive the American Dream will continue to resonate.”
DeSantis saw an increase in the survey from his numbers nationally but is still significantly behind Trump.
Some strategists had expected Trump’s support to be dented in the state due to perceived missteps.
Last month, Trump was absent from The 2023 FAMiLY Leadership Summit, hosted by an influential socially conservative organization. The event was attended by many of Trump’s opponents in the primary race, including DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Scott, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy, among others. Trump had offered to send Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) to the summit as a surrogate, but this was rejected by the Family Leader president and CEO Bob Vander Plaats.
Vander Plaats, a prominent conservative Christian leader in the state, suggested recently that voters want to move on from the former president.
This didn’t seem to resonate with evangelicals, though, as Trump was viewed most favorably by the religious group, with 74%. DeSantis, however, rivaled Trump’s favorability with the group, posting 73%. The Florida governor has maintained a strong relationship with Vander Plaats, unlike Trump.
Trump has also been engaged in a feud with Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), which further indicated to strategists that the state’s Republicans might look elsewhere for a candidate. However, the latest poll doesn’t reflect as much because Trump still leads by more than 20 points.
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This comes as candidates such as DeSantis and Scott have established rigorous grassroots efforts in Iowa, hoping to capitalize on what were seen as mistakes by Trump. Both of the men received more support from Iowans in the poll compared to national data, but still not enough to present a real challenge to the former president.
Trump, on the other hand, has spent significantly less time on the ground in Iowa, but this didn’t seem to phase supporters. The former president also announced recently that he won’t be attending the Republican National Committee’s primary debate on Wednesday. DeSantis’s campaign criticized this, emphasizing that candidates must show up to earn the support of voters. But, if the new Iowa data are any indication, Trump may not need to be particularly present to maintain support.
