Although former President Donald Trump‘s support among Republican primary voters overall barely budged following a 37-criminal count indictment, new polling appears to show a worrying sign for his campaign: in three battleground states, all of which have trended Democratic, he is trailing his chief 2024 presidential rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
Polling from Public Opinion Strategies showed DeSantis defeating President Joe Biden in a matchup while Trump loses to Biden in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, three crucial states that will help determine the next president of the United States and control of Congress. It follows another poll from CNN that shows support for the former president may be softening.
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In Georgia, Biden received a 43% favorable rating compared to Trump’s 42% and DeSantis’s 37% favorable ratings. Yet it was DeSantis who received the lowest unfavorable rating at 43% compared to Biden at 53% and Trump at 54%. In positive news for DeSantis, 48% of those surveyed said they would vote for him for president, while only 45% said they would vote for Biden.
In a matchup between Biden and Trump, Biden received 47% of support compared to 44% who would back the former president. Another sign of possible Trump fatigue: 54% of people said DeSantis could beat Biden, but only 51% said the same for Trump. And 50% of people surveyed said there is no way they would ever vote for Trump as president.
Biden won Georgia during the 2020 presidential matchup with Trump, and the Peach State also kept Democrats in control of the Senate during the 2022 midterm elections. Any 2024 contender will likely need Georgia in order to cinch the presidency.
In Pennsylvania, Biden had the highest favorable ratings at 44%, with Trump at 39% and DeSantis at 35%. But it was Trump who had the highest unfavorable ratings at 57%, with Biden at 53% and DeSantis at 45%. DeSantis again would defeat Biden 47% to 45% in a presidential matchup, yet Biden would defeat Trump 48% to 44%.
Trump and DeSantis are statistically tied when voters were asked which candidate could defeat Biden. More than half of those surveyed, 53%, said Trump would best Biden, and 52% said the same for DeSantis. Another 53% said there was no way they would ever for Trump as president.
Pennsylvania was another battleground state that Biden won in 2020; Two years later, incoming Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) defeated Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz, flipping a Republican seat during the midterms.
In Arizona, Biden again had the highest favorable rating at 41%, with Trump at 39% and DeSantis at 34%. Yet, it was the former president who had the highest unfavorable rating at 56%, Biden at 54%, and DeSantis at 41%. In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis received 46% of support compared to Biden’s 40%. When Biden and Trump are pitted against each other, Biden garnered 44% of support while Trump received 41%.
Similar to Pennsylvania, Trump and DeSantis are statistically tied, at 52% and 53%, respectively, when those surveyed were asked about which individual can defeat Biden. More than half of those surveyed, 51%, said there was no way they would ever vote to elect Trump as president.
Biden narrowly won Arizona in 2020, to the fierce anger of Trump, who blasted Fox News for calling the news first. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) won reelection in 2022, while Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Trump-backed Kari Lake in the gubernatorial race. Arizona will once again have all eyes on it during the 2024 presidential election as well as a fierce reelection battle for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ).
DeSantis has aimed to be the Trump alternative candidate who can deliver on conservative priorities without the baggage and drama, but he faces difficult political winds in trying to dethrone Trump’s hold over the GOP base. Yet DeSantis and the super PAC that supports him, Never Back Down, are pouring millions of dollars into ad buy campaigns, door-knocking, and barnstorming in the early nominating primary states.
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While Trump has dominated in polls among Republican primary voters, DeSantis remains a consistent second-place candidate, polling in the double-digits over lower-tier candidates.
Public Opinion Strategies conducted the poll from June 17-19 and surveyed 500 voters each in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
