Former President Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot next week despite his successor’s best efforts to make the election about him. But the midterm elections will stand as a big test of Trump’s influence on the Republican Party.
Control of the 50-50 Senate will come down to how several candidates Trump endorsed in the primaries fare in the general election.
Author J.D. Vance (R-OH), television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz (R-PA), former NFL running back Herschel Walker (R-GA), Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC), former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R-NV) and venture capitalist Blake Masters (R-AZ) are the GOP standard-bearers in the six tightest Senate races.
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Trump endorsed all of them and was sometimes decisive in their winning the Republican nomination.
Vance, Oz, and Budd are running to retain must-hold seats for the GOP. Walker, Laxalt, and Masters are challenging sitting Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in races that are the Republicans’ best pickup opportunities.
Republicans need a net gain of one seat to retake the majority.
Not only would this coterie of Trump-endorsed candidates make a difference in which party controls the Senate, but it also could grow the number of senators aligned with Trump more than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), though McConnell has poured considerable money into some of these races.
By the end of Trump’s term, his relationship with McConnell had deteriorated badly. McConnell publicly mused about voting to convict in Trump’s second Senate impeachment trial, though the GOP leader did, in the end, vote to acquit. Trump has called for McConnell to be replaced as leader, with some Republicans raising Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), the chairman of the Senate GOP’s campaign arm this cycle, as a possibility.
These Republicans helping the party win the Senate would also be seen as a vindication of Trump’s political judgment. Over the summer, it looked as if the GOP would once again fritter away winnable Senate seats because of ill-performing candidates. But all of Trump’s endorsed candidates have battled back to at least make their races competitive.
If Republicans lose the Senate thanks in part to Trump’s interventions in the primary, it will raise new questions about his ability to lead his party to future victories. In 2010, Republicans failed to capitalize on a tea party wave and win the Senate despite gaining 63 House seats.
Trump’s influence can be felt outside the Senate races. Kari Lake is leading in the Arizona governor’s race and could become a face of the MAGA movement. Top Democratic operative David Axelrod told Axios, “If you get a candidate who has the performance skills of a major-market local TV anchor and the philosophy and thinking of Steve Bannon, that’s a potent and dangerous combination. … Look at Italy.” Axelrod was speaking of Lake.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) faces a big reelection race. While he may end up being Trump’s main rival for the 2024 nomination, the Florida governor has drawn many lessons from the 45th president. Trump endorsed DeSantis in the gubernatorial primary in 2018 at a time when he was not favored.
In races where Republicans aren’t favored, Trump-endorsed Geoffrey Diehl and Dan Cox are vying to replace the two most popular blue-state GOP governors: Govs. Charlie Baker (R-MA) and Larry Hogan (R-MD), respectively.
All indications are that Trump plans to seek the Republican presidential nomination again in 2024. But his political future is unclear, as he could be indicted and faces a number of legal problems.
Some Republicans would like to see a different nominee.
Former Attorney General William Barr, a Trump appointee, told the Washington Examiner that making America great again “will take more than a lame-duck 78-year-old coming into office who obviously seems to put a premium on revenge and payback and who, in my mind, doesn’t have the strategic sense to really construct a unified party and a subsequent agenda that will provide durable results.”
“It’s going to be palpable in 2024 that because we want to win and beat the Democrats, we know as a party we’re better off with somebody else to be our nominee to guarantee a victory because we know we lose with Trump,” former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) predicted. “It’s the suburban voter. They’re the big difference maker.”
President Joe Biden has made the threat to democracy posed by “MAGA Republicans” aligned with Trump central to his midterm election messaging, similarly believing this will doom Republicans with suburban voters. But he currently only leads Trump by 0.3 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
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Trump could announce a third presidential campaign by the end of the year, setting up a potential rematch with Biden.
Time will tell whether that announcement comes after voters deliver Biden a stinging rebuke on Nov. 8.
