DES MOINES, Iowa — For former President Donald Trump, a commanding win in Iowa will underscore his dominance in the 2024 Republican primary as he hopes to end the nomination contest decisively.
Winning “bigly,” as he is wont to say, in the Iowa caucuses will not only stop former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s momentum before the New Hampshire primary and pressure Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) to drop out of the race, but it could also help him remain the Republican standard-bearer amid his criminal court proceedings and the potential for a conviction.
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Trump’s campaigns could never be described as traditional. He dismissed retail politics in Iowa during the 2016 primary, ceding the Hawkeye State to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and decided against taking part in this cycle’s debates. But the former president is expected to hold six rallies and participate in a televised town hall before the Jan. 15 caucuses, an increase in intensity. He is additionally reportedly planning to attend oral arguments for his presidential immunity federal appeal next week. His campaign is similarly deploying high-profile supporters, from his son Eric to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Gov. Kristi Noem (R-SD), and even Roseanne Barr, with Noem’s crowd in Sioux City eclipsing some of Haley and DeSantis. Simultaneously, his attorneys are contending with mounting legal challenges, including a new one regarding ballot access and the Constitution’s 14th Amendment insurrection clause.
Days before Iowa, Trump has an unprecedented average 30-plus-point polling advantage on Haley and DeSantis, his campaign sidestepping questions about his court dates.
“A good night is a win, considering 2016, where we went on to win the nomination despite coming up slightly short in Iowa,” one senior Trump campaign official told the Washington Examiner. “Anything over a 12-point win would be a record-setting victory that has never been achieved by any candidate in the Iowa GOP caucuses.”
“Either way, President Trump will march to the nomination and leave no stone unturned to do so — regardless of whatever fake momentum narratives the media concocts to try to keep the primary alive for clicks,” the staffer said.
Trump campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, too, projected confidence in their New Year’s state of the race memo. For LaCivita and Wiles, the “real battle” in Iowa is the one for second place as “Haley’s resources from the pro-China crowd are rising and DeSanctimonious’ money is drying up.”
But the other campaigns disagree. Bob Vander Plaats, who has endorsed DeSantis and is the president and CEO of the Family Leader, a socially conservative Iowa organization, repeated that the state “breaks late,” notwithstanding persistent polling.
“Not only can [DeSantis] win, he’s proven [he can] win in a toss-up state with a very bold and conservative agenda, but he can lead on day one defending this country without defending himself, and I really believe people are looking at that right now,” Vander Plaats said.
“Do the indictments help [Trump]? Don’t they help him? You just don’t know that until at the end of the day on Jan. 15,” he added. “I mean, just like in 2020, if Trump is our nominee in ’24, I think it’s a referendum on Trump, and that is a high hurdle for us to win elections.”
Meanwhile, the Haley campaign amplified Trump’s $3.5 million investment in criticizing her to New Hampshire voters as evidence the nomination is still in play, without addressing his trials. Trump has a 20-point edge over Haley in the Granite State.
“Nikki’s momentum is real and the direct result of her putting in the work, shaking every hand, and answering every question,” Haley spokeswoman AnnMarie Graham-Barnes said. “Trump is spending millions in attack ads against her because this is a two-person race between Trump and Haley and he’s scared.”
But although the Trump campaign has emphasized its new and improved ground game in Iowa, two likely caucusgoers at a DeSantis event in Council Bluffs told the Washington Examiner they have not received personal overtures from his team.
“I’ve been contacted by DeSantis people more than I have Trump people, and I was a very big Trump supporter, wore the hat, banged the drum for Trump when he ran in 2016 and in ’20,” Peter Finn, 63, said. “And I like President Trump. I could do without some of the extra stuff, but what he did as president, I was very happy with what he did. I haven’t been contacted. I haven’t seen many yard signs in my neighborhood.”
“I think Trump’s going to win big, but I’m going to cast my vote for DeSantis,” the Council Bluffs construction small-business owner continued. “I’d like to see him be able to stay in the race longer. I don’t want this to be over, like, after New Hampshire and Trump is it. I like him. We’re all better if we have more players in the game for a while.”
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Nevertheless, Finn predicted that “Trump’s going to win big.” At a separate DeSantis event in Waukee, Peter Eastman, 58, agreed, but he was more conservative concerning the former president’s margin of victory.
“My gut instinct is that Trump may win, but I don’t know that the spread will be as much as it appears to be in the polls, and I think that that will be the story,” the West Des Moines marketing executive said.
