Former President Donald Trump is on track to defeat President Joe Biden in two key areas, according to a new poll, adding to Democratic worries over the president.
A new poll from Stack Data Strategy found that Trump would beat Biden in the Electoral College, 292 to 246, if an election were held today. Biden is still on track to win the popular vote, 49% to 48%, but he is projected to lose four battleground states he won in 2020, a blow to the president as he works to build his reelection campaign in states that house a heavy pro-Trump base.
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The poll found that Biden would lose Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to Trump in 2024, the same four states that pivoted from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020 and prevented the former president from securing a second term in the White House.
The four states are projected to have the closest margins out of all states in 2020, with all margins under 1.5 points. Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin all have under a 1-point margin for Biden. There is a strong swing for Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania, with margins of plus 2.3 points and plus 3.3 points, respectively.
“Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win,” said Joe Bedell, head of Stack Data Strategy in North America. “Despite recent calls for change, our polling shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate, [and] President Trump would beat both of Biden’s possible replacements by an even greater margin.”
Stack Data Strategy’s “possible replacements” for Biden include Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). The latter has denied he is seeking a presidential run in 2024 despite building his national profile in recent months.
The poll also does not provide comfort to third-party candidates and organizations that are looking for a unity ticket to run against Biden and Trump in 2024. No Labels, the most vocal third-party group this election cycle, has explained that launching a unity ticket may become necessary in 2024 “in the event both major parties nominate presidential candidates that the vast majority of Americans don’t want.”
A No Labels presentation in October found that having a Republican on top in a three-way race in eight battleground states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — is the third-party group’s “best chance of winning.” This has caused panic among Democratic lawmakers and allies who worry that No Labels’s third-party efforts will aid the GOP and secure a Trump win. The group has adamantly denied these accusations.
Several national Democrats and their aides have expressed concerns about the state of Biden’s reelection campaign, particularly in the swing states that continue to trend slightly toward Trump more and more over the last few months. Some Democratic allies have expressed warnings to the party that they “misunderstood” the voices of several key voting blocs, such as black and Muslim voters, who were not a pro-Biden vote but an anti-Trump vote.
“People fundamentally misunderstood what black voters said in 2020,” Cliff Albright, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, said in an interview with the Washington Post. “The depth of support was never there. The enthusiasm was never there for Biden. We were very pragmatic. We knew he was the best chance to beat Trump.”
After a different poll came out last week showing Trump winning several swing states, lawmakers such as Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) expressed doubt about Biden’s electability, with the Connecticut senator adding that Democrats “have our work cut out for us.”
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“I am concerned,” Blumenthal said last week. “I was concerned before these numbers. I am concerned by the inexplicable credibility that Donald Trump seems to have despite all of the indictments, the lies, the incredible wrongdoing.”
The Stack Data Strategy poll was conducted from Oct. 13 to Nov. 3 with 15,205 respondents.
