The only question more fraught for former President Donald Trump than whether he can overcome his Georgia indictments may be whether he can win the Peach State in 2024.
Trump is far ahead of GOP rivals in primary polling, but Georgia poses unique challenges for him in the general election despite its status as a traditional red state.
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The Donald narrowly lost Georgia in 2020, which is one of the reasons he’s now in hot water with the district attorney of the state’s largest county, Fulton. Trump pressured Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to overturn the election results that year, including through an infamous phone call asking him to “find” votes.
Raffensperger and Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) refused, leading to political problems for Trump along with his legal ones. The pair easily beat Trump-backed GOP primary challengers last year en route to reelection, and both are still airing their disagreements with him.
Raffensperger released a statement roughly 12 hours after Trump was indicted, saying “accountability” is one of the principles of a “strong democracy.”
“You either have it or you don’t,” Raffensperger said.
Kemp weighed in too, posting on X, formerly known as Twitter, that the 2020 election was not stolen.
“For nearly three years now, anyone with evidence of fraud has failed to come forward — under oath — and prove anything in a court of law,” he wrote. “Our elections in Georgia are secure, accessible, and fair and will continue to be as long as I am governor.”
The 2020 election in Georgia was not stolen.
For nearly three years now, anyone with evidence of fraud has failed to come forward – under oath – and prove anything in a court of law. Our elections in Georgia are secure, accessible, and fair and will continue to be as long as I… pic.twitter.com/jaru2iBDo7
— Brian Kemp (@BrianKempGA) August 15, 2023
Those rebuttals put Trump at odds with two popular GOP officials who were reelected less than a year ago.
Can Trump win Georgia in 2024 under those circumstances? Former Republican state Rep. Micah Gravley thinks so.
“Based on everybody I talk to, I think there’s a resurgence of support for Trump simply based on the fact that his administration got things accomplished,” Gravley, who represented an exurban county west of Atlanta, said. “Things were better economically, and there was more respect internationally. I think that’s going to play out in the general election.”
Gravley said he and many other Georgians support both Kemp and Trump.
Like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), Kemp won his office thanks in part to a 2018 Trump endorsement. But Kemp won reelection in direct opposition to Trump after defying his election demands.
The stakes are high for Trump. Georgia is one of just four states identified as a 2024 toss-up by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and based on Sabato’s math, Trump may need to win all four of them, including Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, to get back into the White House. Of the four, Georgia has the most Electoral College votes.
“It would do Trump good if he had the support of Gov. Kemp,” Gravley added.
Trump’s Peach State record has been shaky in multiple ways over the last two election cycles. He is generally seen as playing a role in the Democrats sweeping two Senate runoffs in early 2021. In 2022, Trump’s hand-picked Senate candidate Herschel Walker was the only Republican to lose a statewide election in Georgia.
Democratic state Rep. Roger Bruce, who represents portions of Fulton County, doesn’t see Trump winning his state next year.
“They had everything petitioned off downtown in anticipation of there being masses turning out if he was indicted. Nobody turned out,” Bruce said. “I just don’t think he has the influence he once did.”
But Trump was also widely written off in 2016 before pulling off a shocking upset that included winning Georgia.
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In that light, GeorgiaPol.com publisher Charlie Harper urges caution about prognosticating for next year, especially with so many other variables still unknown.
“[The outcome] would have a lot more to do with where the economy is, if inflation is really under control, and who the toss-up suburban voters believe threatens their status quo the least,” Harper said. “In that scenario, Trump edging out Biden in Georgia from an electorate incredibly frustrated with both candidates remains a possibility.”
