In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues we believe will shape 2024 — and beyond. These close-up examinations of agenda-setting issues cover everything from the battle between the Biden family’s business deals and Republican Oversight to the emergence of a “new world order” and fights over redistricting and new election maps. Part 12 is about the one thing that could stop former President Donald Trump from returning to the White House.
Former President Donald Trump powered to a commanding lead in the Republican presidential primary as his indictments and legal troubles piled up in 2023, but those court battles could lead to his undoing in the 2024 election even as he looks electorally stronger than ever.
The former president was indicted four times last year, along with being engaged in legal battles with E. Jean Carroll and the state of New York. The indictments in four different jurisdictions were political gold for Trump, with each new charge giving him momentum in the polls and helping him pull away from the field of GOP challengers.
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Trump’s first indictment was handed down in Manhattan on charges related to the alleged falsification of business records for hush money payments made prior to the 2016 election. The former president decried the charges as a “Witch-Hunt” and “Political Persecution and Election Interference at the highest level in history,” and prospective voters seemed to agree.
The RealClearPolitics polling average showed Trump only ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who had yet to announce a 2024 bid but was expected to following a landslide 2022 gubernatorial victory in Florida, by just more than 15 points in late March 2023. After the indictment, Trump put plenty of distance between himself and the rest of the GOP field, leading DeSantis by as much as 25 points by the time the Florida governor announced his presidential campaign in late May.
The former president also pulled ahead of President Joe Biden in head-to-head polling, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average, following the Manhattan indictment and stayed ahead of the current commander in chief until July. Trump later regained a lead over Biden in the polling average in September.
Subsequent indictments in federal court in Florida on charges related to his alleged mishandling of classified documents in June, in Washington, D.C., over his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 election in August, and in Fulton County, Georgia, on racketeering charges only bolstered Trump.
Entering 2024, Trump leads the Republican primary field by more than 50 points and appears on track for a rematch with Biden in the presidential election in November. The former president is also recording a lead of more than 2 points over Biden in the national polling average, after losing to Biden in the popular vote 51.3% to 46.8% in 2020.
Recent polls in key swing states, which Trump lost in 2020 en route to a defeat in the general election, have shown the former president ahead of the current president, but many of them have a significant caveat regarding Trump’s court battles — a conviction in a legal case significantly hurts Trump.
A Wall Street Journal poll released in December 2023 showed Trump ahead of Biden nationally, 47% to 43%. But if he’s convicted, Trump falls behind Biden, 45% to 46%. A New York Times-Siena College poll released that same month shows that, among GOP voters, if Trump is convicted, 32% believe he should not be the Republican nominee even if he has the most votes.
Another New York Times-Siena College poll released in November 2023 showed Biden leading Trump 49% to 40% among likely voters in six swing states if the former president is convicted and sentenced to jail.
For the Trump campaign, the 2024 election could become a race against the clock between his four criminal trials and Election Day on Nov. 5, 2024. Prosecutors in the four cases appear intent on getting the trials completed as quickly as possible, but Trump’s lawyers have been able to push some of the trials further back than prosecutors would like.
In the federal 2020 election subversion case, special counsel Jack Smith wanted a Jan. 2 trial date, while Trump wanted a date after the 2024 elections. U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan decided on March 5 for the trial, but that trial is paused as Trump’s lawyers argue to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit he is immune from prosecution. The pause will likely cause the initial trial date to be pushed back as his claims make their way through appeals courts.
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In the federal classified documents case, the trial is scheduled to begin on May 20, and in the Georgia election subversion case, a date has not been set, but Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has proposed an Aug. 5 trial date.
Another legal fight the Trump campaign will be battling in the coming 11 months is ballot access. The Colorado Supreme Court and Maine secretary of state have removed the former president from their primary ballots, citing the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. The case in Colorado will go before the Supreme Court, but it could prove to be another lengthy legal battle for the Trump campaign.
