In the eyes of many Western supporters, Ukraine can do no wrong.
That is to say, Ukraine better do no wrong. Or it risks losing that support, should it appear to be losing or committing war crimes.
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The first month of Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive is off to a sluggish start. With the losses of both men and materiel, there is a sense among many in Ukraine that, despite promises to back the country “as long as it takes,” Western pledges are predicated on the war going according to plan while producing quick victories and stunning successes.
At the same time, at the Pentagon, there is a concerted effort to temper enthusiasm, with officials invoking such time-tested wartime maxims such as “The enemy gets a vote” and “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.”
“War on paper and real war are different. In real war, real people die, real people are on those front lines, real people are in those vehicles, real bodies are being shredded by high explosives,” said Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in an appearance at the National Press Club at the end of June.
“When we hit the beach at Normandy on 6 June 1944, we had predicted that we would be at the assault objectives in the first day, and then we predicted that we essentially would be in Paris, I think it was, in 30 or 40 days. It took us 90 days to get to Paris, it took us forever and a day to get through the hedge rows because it was bloody, hard fighting and people were dying.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted last month that the counteroffensive is progressing “slower than desired.” He also expressed frustration with the handwringing over the lack of dramatic gains in the early days.
“Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not,” Zelensky told the BBC. “What’s at stake is people’s lives.”
Several factors are impeding Ukraine’s ability to mount a blitzkrieg breakthrough of Russian defenses, including Russia’s multiple lines of fortified trenches and heavy use of anti-tank mines.
“In some areas, the density of its minefields indicates that it has likely used many more mines than laid down in its military doctrine,” the British Defense Ministry said in a statement posted to Twitter. “Having slowed the Ukrainian advance, Russia has then attempted to strike Ukrainian armored vehicles with one-way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles, attack helicopters, and artillery.”
In a more recent interview with CNN, Zelensky blamed the slow start on the long wait for advanced weapons including tanks and long-range missiles, which gave Russia too much time to prepare. “I wanted our counteroffensive happening much earlier because everyone understood that if the counteroffensive will be unfolding later, then a much bigger part of our territory will be mined.”
“I told them,” Zelensky said, referring to President Joe Biden and European leaders. “If we start later, it will go slower, and we will have losses of lives.”
“Russians, they’re not standing still,” retired Gen. Wesley Clark, former top NATO commander, said on CNN, where he’s a paid contributor. “The Russians are also developing new technologies. They’re trying to strengthen their electronic warfare, jam the drones. They’re jamming the HIMARS system now, so it’s not as effective in striking precision targets deep.”
Ukraine is also moving cautiously, probing the 600-mile front line for weak points. While, unlike the Russians, seeking to minimize both military and civilian casualties.
“In some directions, we cannot even think of starting it, as we don’t have the relevant weapons,” Zelensky said. “And throwing our people to be killed by Russian long-range weapons will be simply inhumane. So we’re not going to do it.”
The primary impediment to a U.S.-style “shock and awe” campaign is the lack of modern combat jets and longer-range precision missiles, along with Marquess of Queensberry restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons to attack Russian territory.
That eliminates the option of creating a diversion by sending Ukrainian forces across the border in the north in order to divert Russian troops from the front lines or attack Russian trenches and supply lines from the rear.
Ukraine is required to play by rules designed to prevent NATO from being drawn directly into the conflict, while Russia is free to fire missiles indiscriminately from its own territory and airspace and commit war crimes with impunity.
So when Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhny hears defeatist talk about how the counteroffensive is moving too timidly, it “pisses me off,” he told the Washington Post in an interview.
“Every day, every meter is given by blood. … Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all,” Zaluzhny said, admitting deep frustration that the F-16 fighter jets he needs to keep Russia’s modern Su-35s at bay are months away at best.
“I do not need 120 planes. I’m not going to threaten the whole world. A very limited number would be enough. … But they are needed. Because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation. It’s like we’d go on the offensive with bows and arrows.”
While Zelensky says there can be no victory for Ukraine if it does not include taking back Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, current and former U.S. commanders doubt that’s possible unless the United States stops lifting limits on the kinds of weapons it will supply. And take the gloves off on how they are used.
“It looks to me, as someone who’s looked at these military battles historically and many other times, that the Ukrainians simply don’t have the combat power to get into Crimea without air power, without the ATACMS [Army Tactical Missile System], without better electronic warfare, without the ability to target deep and go after Russian reserves,” Clark said.
“ATACMS is definitely our priority,” said Zelensky. “They are very important because we can hit some long-distance targets without losing our people.”
Viewing a video on Twitter showing the destruction of a huge Russian ammunition storage facility behind enemy lines in the eastern Donetsk region, retired Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army Europe, opined on Twitter, “Imagine how much more damage to Russian logistics Ukraine could do if they had ATACMS and Gray Eagle Drones. No Russian ammunition storage site anywhere inside Ukraine would be safe. Russian bases and the Black Sea Fleet would not be safe. [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin] Sir, what are we waiting for?”
Zelensky never fails to express gratitude for the more than $40 billion in military assistance provided by the U.S. and at least 50 other countries, while at the same time arguing he needs more.
The pattern of denying certain advanced weaponry, only to relent months later, has resulted in a sort of stoic fatalism among Ukrainians who have seen their country and their lives destroyed.
Ukrainians are growing tired of being praised for their heroic grit and determination, while they still fight with one hand behind their back.
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“To us, it feels as though the world is anticipating yet another tragedy as if we are simply characters in a dystopian series. Only when faced with a concoction of pandemics, floods, bombings, torture, and rape can we receive help and support,” wrote Ukrainian researcher Mariam Naiem in an essay published in Politico last month. “And not only this, but we have to repeatedly prove to the audience that we are brave, honest, ‘civilized’ and not wasteful.” Gen. Jim Mattis, the legendary Marine commander and former defense secretary, used to tell his troops, “Remember, we are the good guys. We’re not the perfect guys.”
These days Ukraine is feeling as though it has to be perfect in order to defeat Russia and win the right to join the West as a full member of NATO.
