Voters are split on which party they would prefer to control Congress after the midterm elections in November, giving a glimpse of hope to Democrats who started the year with fears they’d lose control of both the House and Senate.
About 46% of voters say they’d prefer Republicans gain control of Congress compared to 46% who say the same for Democrats, according to a poll from NBC News. Although polling puts both parties on an even playing field ahead of Election Day, Republicans have some advantages that could give them an edge to win both chambers in November.
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“There is a campaign about the economy, cost of living, crime, and border security, and Republicans are winning this campaign,” said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who co-led the survey. “But there is a second campaign on abortion, democracy, and climate change, and Democrats are winning that campaign.”
The 46%-46% split marks a shift in tone, as Democrats were trailing Republicans 42%-47% in voter preference just five months ago, according to the poll. That could be due to the Democratic Party’s all-time high advantage with voters on abortion rights, an issue that took center stage after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June.
Democrats hold advantages with several key voting demographics, including black voters (77% compared to Republicans’ 8%), white voters with college degrees (58%-38%), Latinos (46%-42%), and voters ages 18 to 34 (57%-33%), according to the poll. Meanwhile, Republicans have an advantage among male voters (53% compared to Democrats’ 39%), white voters (54%-41%), independents (43%-37%), and white voters without college degrees (64%-31%).
Republicans also enjoy higher levels of voter enthusiasm, as 69% of Republican voters say they have a high level of interest in voting in November compared to just 66% of Democrats who say the same, the poll shows.
Republicans and Democrats hold advantages on different midterm issues, giving both parties a chance to edge out the other. Republicans hold a 19-point advantage when it comes to handling the economy, a 23-point lead dealing with crime, and a 36% edge regarding border security — each being recorded as all-time highs for the party, according to the poll.
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Democrats also hold advantages in key areas, including a 20-point lead in healthcare, an 11-point advantage in education, and a 22-point edge for abortion rights, the poll shows. The markedly high 22-point advantage for abortion rights is an all-time high for the party.
“We often think about wave elections,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who also led the survey. “But this year, we may think instead about a ‘waves’ election where unprecedentedly strong crosscurrents push voters in different directions, with an end result that may not be what we expected.”
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from Sept. 9-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
