Whispers are growing that the Democratic Party’s future lies in Georgia, with Sen. Raphael Warnock, if he can hold off Republican challenger Herschel Walker this fall.
Warnock is a uniquely talented and likable politician. Just ask Georgia Republicans. None dare say so on the record. But granted the cloak of anonymity, they are the first to compliment, or lament, Warnock’s attentive Senate staff, travel schedule that regularly takes him to all corners of the Peach State, and knack for avoiding the “radical leftist” label despite his dependably liberal voting record in Congress.
Roadblocks aplenty threaten Warnock’s bid for a full six-year term after scoring an upset in a 2020 special election: President Joe Biden’s poor job approval ratings; Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who is favored to win reelection; typical midterm headwinds; and Walker, a bona fide Georgia folk hero.
But if Warnock succeeds in a key battleground crucial to the Democratic Party’s Electoral College math, he immediately becomes a White House contender.
“Warnock would be an intriguing candidate,” said Ed Espinoza, a Democratic operative in Austin, Texas. “He has a good story, is from a swing state, and the nature of his Senate races have given him a national apparatus. I’d love to see more of him on the national stage.”
“He is the most gifted performer that I’ve ever seen in Georgia politics. That includes, of course, the lion of the Left, Stacey Abrams. He’s better than her,” added a veteran Republican operative in the Peach State, comparing Warnock favorably to Kemp’s Democratic challenger.
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Biden’s age — he turns 80 on Nov. 20 — and political struggles have fueled speculation he might not run for reelection in 2024. Some congressional Democrats have publicly expressed a desire that he stand down after one term. But the president insists he intends to run again, leaving many Democratic insiders hesitant to discuss the party’s post-Biden future, even in the context of what its White House candidate field might look like in 2028.
Quietly, however, that discussion is happening. And it is beginning to include Warnock, 53, a Christian pastor before entering politics who prefers the title “reverend” to “senator” and highlights the former over the latter in campaign and official communications.
Warnock’s rise in Georgia, which before 2020 had not voted for a Democrat for president or Senate since 1992 and 1996, respectively, warrants White House conversation.
“I see him — if he doesn’t run [for president], on every short list for vice president,” a senior Democratic strategist said.
For Warnock, the immediate task is defeating Walker, 60, who enjoys the support of former President Donald Trump and Republican leaders in Atlanta and Washington. There are likely no White House discussions of any substance in Warnock’s future should he fail to knock off the former football star.
The senator held the advantage in public polling in July, edging his GOP challenger 47.6% to 43.2% in the RealClearPolitics average. But despite Walker’s recent stumbles, Warnock’s prospects are uncertain. He’s running against a famous former professional athlete who led the University of Georgia to a national championship in football in 1980 as a Heisman Trophy-winning running back. Despite an improving atmosphere for Democrats, they are still swimming against the tide.
As for Republicans, they are happy to stoke speculation about a presidential bid surrounding Warnock.
Party strategists hope to convince voters the senator is more interested in climbing political ladders in Washington than attending to voters in Georgia and, in doing so, push Walker to a come-from-behind victory. Warnock, Republicans gleefully point out, is traveling the country to promote his book A Way Out of No Way: A Memoir of Truth Transformation and the New American Story and even missed a couple of Senate votes in June while on tour.
Warnock has another book coming out in November, one week after Election Day, this one a children’s book.
“Raphael Warnock took his eye off of Georgia, seeking the national spotlight and a six-figure book advance while his constituents suffer under some of the highest inflation rates in the country,” said Jack Pandol, spokesman for Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). “Georgia needs a full-time senator focused on bringing down costs, not someone focused on building his own national profile.”
Warnock was paid a book advance of almost $250,000 for A Way Out of No Way. The Senate Leadership Fund plans to invest $37.1 million in advertising in Georgia this cycle. That’s more than McConnell’s super PAC is on tap to spend in any other Senate race.
Meanwhile, Warnock has some personal baggage that could become a problem, although he managed to avoid such pitfalls in 2020.
The issues stem from disagreements between Warnock and his ex-wife, and the custody of their children, that have spilled into public view, creating messy and sometimes salacious headlines. Warnock also has faced allegations of improper use of campaign funds.
There’s also the matter of whether Warnock is prepared for the sort of knife fighting required to advance in a presidential campaign. If Biden retires, could he outflank Vice President Kamala Harris? Would Warnock be able to attract a team of advisers that can help him compete at the highest level? And not unimportant: If a Republican is in the governor’s mansion, would Democrats discourage Warnock from running for fear of losing a crucial Senate seat?
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“Any Democratic voter weighing their options is going to consider the makeup of the U.S. Senate and whether Democrats can afford to lose a seat,” Espinoza said. “It’s all about the judges right now, and while a president can nominate them, it’s still up to the Senate to confirm or deny.”
In Georgia, governors are empowered to appoint individuals to fill vacant Senate seats, with permanent replacements selected by the voters in a special election to coincide with the next regularly scheduled general election.
The Warnock campaign declined to comment for this story.
