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November 12, 2022
By every account, this was a strange election. Having had some time to think about it, I have determined the best explanation for November 8 is that this midterm election was intended to turn out pretty much the way it did.
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Who intended it? The Republican establishment. Why? To get rid of Trump.
How did they do this, and where is the proof? It wasn’t too hard, and the proof is all around us.
This was a midterm election, so there are no real consequences beyond the control of Congress. This means that if you can control one house, even by a slim margin, you can stall the agenda of the other side. How large a majority you have is secondary and, in the long view, not that meaningful.
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The establishment Republicans were willing to settle for less than expected numbers in the House to eradicate what they see as by far their biggest problem. This was their chance to bury Trump and avoid a great deal of damaging unpleasantness at very low to no real cost.
It makes sense. The Democrats funded the Trump senatorial candidates in the primaries because they thought they could make them lose. The Republicans seemed to think that might be a good idea. If necessary, they could help those candidates lose, which could seriously weaken Trump but still leave them with sufficient winners.
The Dem-supported Trump candidates lost, as per their plan. I have heard some pundits say that this was a clever move on the part of the Democrats. Maybe so, but they had a lot of help. Those candidates lost because if they had won, Trump would be almost assured of the presidency in 2024. Look at the contortions Mitch McConnell went through to keep Murkowski and deny the Trump candidate in Alaska. Check out where the Republican House money went when the chips were down. New Hampshire was denied funding just as Bolduc was surging. See here, here, here.
Immediately upon the polls closing, the Republican Establishment gushed over Ron DeSantis. He was all over TV. The very next day, Fox News (with dedicated anti-Trumper Paul Ryan on its Board) ran the headline “Ron DeSantis is the future of Trumpism.”
The Republicans, admittedly dreadfully incompetent at messaging, outdid their own previous failures in this election — on purpose. National ads acknowledging the accomplishments of Trump on the economy, immigration, inflation, crime, or any of the other major issues on the table for this election were nonexistent.
Ronald Reagan made one of the most impressive marks on an election in the last 50 years when he asked a simple question: “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” The Republicans needed only one chart with two columns — one for Trump, one for Biden — listing gas prices, food prices, general inflation rates, murders, education proficiency rates, and half a dozen more items with the comparable figures. Displaying that chart on 30-second ads in every market every day would have left the Democrats begging for mercy with minimal voter turnout. Did Republicans, do it? No. Why not? The Trump name would have been mentioned. And this year, there were more than enough of those issues to slay an entire herd of dragons.
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There were several House races with obvious “Biden bumps” in the vote tracking. A Biden bump is a sudden, straight-line, vertical rise in the normal arcing pattern of vote count over a number of hours. The Biden bump was clearly demonstrated on Election Night 2016 in several states, and it was clear last Tuesday. Check that out here.
Republicans are making no noise about this at all. They are contesting nothing vocally on the national level. They are taking no action whatsoever in the obvious stalling of the counts in Arizona and Nevada. The Republicans are quiet because the establishment accomplished what it set out to do. There should be no question about this. Yes, Harmeet Dhillon and the troops are plugging a lot of holes at the local level, and that’s needed, but the overall national outcome was predetermined.
The Republican Party used their huge polling advantage and the favorable winds granted by the unspeakably incompetent Biden administration to target their own losses in a manner that will ensure the embarrassment of Trump and ascendancy of DeSantis, all in one fell swoop. This week, the Republican establishment will likely be dangling a few vivid alternatives in front of Trump as he retires to Mar-a-Largo before his scheduled announcement. His choices will be presented in the starkest of terms.
Deals are made all the time in this game, and this election has no other explanation that makes sense. “Interesting times” is the understatement of the year, and we likely could be in for a pretty interesting couple of months.
This is all opinion, of course, but it seems to me to be logical. That assumption is based on two things that I have come to believe over the years. In politics, things are not ever as they appear to be, and politicians will never fail to act in their own self-interest, whatever the stakes. (For all of you mystery fans, there are also motive, means, and opportunity.)
And regardless of how we may feel about this personally, we have to hope the Republicans achieve at least their minimum goal: a House majority. The fear is that whenever one is dealing with the devil, or playing with fire, or even failing to do one’s level best, the risk of serious loss is much higher than the players are willing to believe going in.
Image via Max Pixel.
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