What To Expect During Tonight’s Trump-Biden Debate

In a highly anticipated showdown, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump square off tonight in the first of two scheduled debates. The battle of wits comes extraordinarily early in the campaign, which -- as we'll explain below -- could be something the Trump campaign regrets. 

Here are the essentials: 

• The debate in Atlanta will air at 9 pm ET on CNN and on the streaming platform Max. If you don't have either of those, you can watch without a cable log-in at CNN.com  

• Moderators are Jake Tapper and Dana Bash

• The contest will last 90 minutes, and have two commercial/rest breaks. Candidates are not allowed to interact with their staff during the breaks

• No prepared notes are allowed, but will have pads for making notes during the debate.

• The contenders' microphones will be muted when it's not their turn to talk

That last wrinkle could be a major help for the challenger: Trump's performance in the crucial first debate of the 2020 election was a certified disaster, thanks to his incessant interruptions of Biden, which only served to annoy audiences and reinforce Trump's reputation for supposedly "lacking civility."  

In anticipation of a train wreck on either side, will tonight's debate viewership top 2016's Clinton/Trump battle?

You will find more infographics at Statista

Then again, the muted microphones may be a redundancy, as Trump is reportedly well aware that his tactics backfired in the last election. "He has said to people, multiple times, that he knows that he interrupted too much in the first debate with Biden in 2020," the New York Times' Maggie Haberman told CNN's Anderson Cooper last week. In any event, here's a CNN demonstration of what it will sound like if a muted candidate tries to speak during the opponent's turn: 

I never realized it was illegal for Donald Trump to interrupt Joe Biden in a debate (because it wasn’t until 2021), but after the 2020 debacles the 117th Congress passed a law that it is, and this is how that law is enforced: pic.twitter.com/JS355bHtAP

— Michael Drew 🍻🍻 (@MikeDrewWhat) June 27, 2024

With the latest New York Times/Siena College poll showing Trump leading Biden in all seven battleground states, the pressure is clearly on the incumbent. At the same time, Biden's increasing pace of verbal miscues makes the debate a risky proposition for him. Rather than closing the gap, a performance that confirms the public's worst beliefs about Biden's mental acuity could spell disaster. 

That's why Trump may come to regret agreeing to a debate that's far earlier in the presidential election calendar than normal -- indeed, before either party has even had its nominating convention. If tonight's debate puts Biden's mental decline under the national spotlight, the Democratic Party -- already deeply worried about Trump outperforming among blacks, Hispanics and young people -- may scramble to persuade Biden to leave the race with dignity and replace him with someone else.

Of course, Biden has the uncanny ability to go from confused nursing home patient to invigorated octogenarian - which has prompted Trump and many others to suggest they take blood tests before the debate. Of course, that's not going to happen.

As Andrew Ross Sorkin notes in the NY Times dealbook, the economy will be a big topic of debate.

The economy is the big question. Various measures show strong growth under Biden, but many voters feel differently. What will Biden and Trump say about some of the key issues?

• Inflation: This is clearly a challenge for the president, as Americans complain about what they’re paying in the grocery store, at the pump and on their rent. Biden can say that price increases are slowing down, and will most likely emphasize his administration’s efforts to crack down on “corporate greed,” like taking on so-called junk fees. Trump will probably stress how good things were when he took office in 2017 — an economy many Americans want back.

• Taxes: Biden’s proposals for higher corporate taxes will hit profits: “It’s simple math,” David Bahnsen, the founder and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, told DealBook. Many business leaders don’t like Biden’s plan to increase taxes on the wealthy, either. Trump will probably stress his desire to extend his 2017 tax cuts and lower the corporate rate to 20 percent. But questions about corporate earnings and the economy may eclipse those concerns.

• Protectionism: Both candidates want to increase tariffs on Chinese goods, but Biden has been more targeted in how he has done it during his presidency. Trump has proposed significantly higher across-the-board levies, though it’s unclear how serious he is about it. Economists have warned that Trump’s potential approach could aggravate inflation and hurt the economy.

• Markets: The S&P 500 set 31 records this year; investors will hope neither party messes with that momentum. In tonight’s debate, “markets probably care more about presentation than policy pledges,” Paul Donovan, an economist at UBS, wrote in a client note. Biden may have a slight edge, he added, since investors would prefer keeping “some continuity.”

The Democratic convention in Chicago is set for Aug. 19 to 22; however, there are plans to nominate Biden ahead of time via a "virtual" online roll call, but the party has not yet announced a date. The Republican convention in Milwaukee will run from July 15 to 18. The second debate, will be hosted by ABC News on Sept. 10.

And with expectations for Biden so low, the Trump campaign has been working to shape the evaluation framework ahead of time. "We believe that many in the media are already prepared to give Joe Biden a participation trophy if he can simply stand upright for 90 minutes,” senior Trump campaign advisor Jason Miller told reporters. 

Trump will be in hostile territory tonight, with the risk of it becoming a de facto 3-v-1 battle. Not only is it being hosted by CNN, but moderators Tapper and Bash are some of the network's harshest critics of Trump.

As if we needed a reminder of the extent to which CNN is an extension of the Biden campaign, over the weekend Kasie Hunt kicked Trump 2024 press secretary Karoline Leavitt off her show when she dared to call out Tapper's obvious animus against the former president: 

Nobody watches CNN. Now this clip has gone viral!

All because Kasie Hunt decided to throw a hissy fit and cut off @kleavittnh to protect viewers from hearing the truth

If Hysterical Hunt would’ve just let Karoline speak, far less people would’ve seen it pic.twitter.com/3QjHnN0T3b

— Alec Lace (@AlecLace) June 24, 2024

Biden's handlers cleared his schedule for the week, so he could focus on debate prep at the Camp David presidential retreat. Speaking in Philadelphia, Trump said much of the prep was likely coming in the form of "sleeping...because they want to get him good and strong." While Biden's prep includes mock debates with a Trump stand-in, Trump's preparation has centered on receiving policy briefings from a variety of allies. 

Oh, and posting hilarious clips to his Instagram channel, like this one made by Jimmy Failla (@jimmyfailla):

Biden’s new ad is a knockout: pic.twitter.com/efahGuosCd

— Jimmy Failla (@jimmyfailla) March 1, 2024

Part of the debate set-up was decided by a coin toss, in which the winning campaign earned the privilege of choosing either their podium location or the sequence of closing statements. The Biden campaign won, and elected to choose the podium on the right side of viewer screens. The Trump campaign then opted to have the last word.  

Speaking of last words, if history is any guide, no matter how terrible Biden may look tonight, we can expect major media outlets to gush about him beating expectations. However, having seen one Biden gaffe after another, the American people are increasingly less likely to fall for that kind of orchestrated snow job.

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