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August 14, 2022

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, is 86 years old.  Against all odds, Abbas has been able to control the PLO and the Palestinian Authority with an iron fist.  To this day, he remains “El kol fil kol,” an Arabic term for a man in control of everything.  Nonetheless, Abbas’s health has been failing more rapidly lately.

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In addition, Abbas’s demeanor has changed.  He seems distant from the Palestinian Authority areas.  He spends most of his time in Amman, Jordan, under the pretext of receiving medical treatment. 

Abbas is on his last legs.  Yet he is not preparing any of his sons to be his successor, not even his well educated millionaire businessman son, Mazen, who is also a Canadian citizen.

So the question is, who will replace him?

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A number of names come to mind, but there is no one who is a natural, who would command the support of the power brokers or the Palestinians.

The Palestinian Authority has been cautiously promoting one guy, Hussein Al-Sheikh, secretary general of the Executive Committee of the PLO.  He has been described by many area media outlets as “the next Palestinian president.”  Since his appointment by Mahmoud Abbas last May, Al-Sheikh has been making grand statements, a big no-no in the PLO code of ethics unless commissioned by Abbas himself.  In other words, it is not unlikely that Abbas is preparing him to be his successor.  Nevertheless, the man has no public support, is not known to many Palestinian and does not have the usual struggle credentials necessary to move up the ladder in the PLO.  For example, he did not fight with Arafat in Beirut. 

At the same time, the 62-year-old Al-Sheikh is no match for those in Abbas’s inner circle.  Though they are in their mid-seventies to mid-eighties, they enjoy more popularity and influence.  Even worse, the Palestinian old guard are already accusing Al-Sheikh of being “an Israeli agent whom the Zionists want to install after Abbas dies.”  With such obstacles, it is likely that Al-Sheikh couldn’t succeed Abbas without facing severe opposition from PLO dinosaurs who could easily organize a coup against him, or even worse.

Another possibility to succeed Abbas as the leader is General Majid Farraj, the head of Palestinian Intelligence.  Farraj comes from the Dhuyshah refugee camp in Bethlehem, which makes him closer to the average Palestinian than most P.A. leaders, who arrived there from Tunisia or Lebanon.  Farraj enjoys a reputation for fighting terrorism, including that coming from the PLO itself.  Farraj has been running the Palestinian Intelligence effectively, keeping its use of violent means against the Palestinian opposition to the “necessary” minimum.

In addition, Farraj has extensive experience in fighting terror in cooperation with Mossad; the CIA, which trains his men to this day; and the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6).  This has materialized in his breakthrough operation in which the Palestinian intelligence helped the CIA locate and arrest a fugitive Libyan terrorist, Abu Annas Al-Libya, in his hometown in Libya.

Farraj would make an effective, decent, and capable president to the P.A., but there is a problem: the P.A.’s strongmen fear Farraj’s effectiveness, and his proximity to the Americans would make him “too strong of a president for them.”  Also, Farraj is relatively young, in his 50s, which does not bode well with the P.A.’s/PLO’s old guard.  They believe they have more merit to lead the P.A., and they are capable of causing trouble to Farraj once he is in power.  “Trouble” could mean launching and financing another intifada to make him look weak or force him to step down.  They can do that if they want to.