Eighteen months out from Election Day 2024, spring recruitment season is underway, likely determining how competitive the Senate map will be. Republicans need a gain of one or two seats to flip the chamber, depending on which party wins the White House.
A total of 34 Senate seats — 20 currently held by Democrats, 11 currently held by Republicans, and three currently held by independents — will be up for grabs next cycle. The three independent senators caucus with Democrats, which means Democrats will be defending 23 of the 34 seats in 2024. Democrats must protect seats in Republican terrain like Ohio and West Virginia and in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.
POLITICAL AND MARKET PRESSURE INCREASES TO RAISE DEBT CEILING
Senators who are seeking reelection
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
Baldwin announced she is seeking a third term in mid-April. Baldwin, 61, became Wisconsin’s first female senator and the country’s first openly gay senator with her election in 2012. Republicans have signaled that they will target Baldwin, who won her last election in 2018 by 11 points. No Republicans have announced plans to run against Baldwin next year.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
Brown announced he’s seeking a fourth term early this year. The race is considered one of the most competitive this cycle, as the state has shifted more red in recent years. Several Republicans are seeking to unseat Brown, including state Sen. Matt Dolan and entrepreneur Bernie Moreno. Other potential challengers could include Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH) and Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA)
Cantwell is running for a fifth term. National and state Republicans have not recruited an opponent for Cantwell yet, but the state is considered by many a safe seat for Democrats to maintain control of in the 2024 elections.
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA)
Casey announced he will be running for a fourth term. Casey’s seat is widely regarded as one of the more competitive ones in the 2024 battle for the Senate seat, given Pennsylvania’s history of swinging between the parties. Despite the state’s battleground status, Casey has defended his seat by considerable margins in past elections. Behind the scenes, Republicans are preparing to challenge Casey. One of the top speculated contenders, businessman David McCormick, released a book last month and has remained very active on the political scene in the Keystone State. Another speculated challenger is former GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, who lost to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) handily in the 2022 midterm elections.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)
Gillibrand is running for reelection. She appears to be clearing her path to reelection after Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) all but closed the door on a possible run last month.
Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM)
Heinrich announced he will run for reelection for a third term earlier this month. Heinrich cruised to victory in 2018. No candidates have emerged yet to challenge Heinrich.
Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
Hirono is running for another six-year term. Hirono, 75, has served in the Senate since 2013, when she replaced former Sen. Daniel Akaka, who did not run for reelection.
Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA)
Kaine announced he will run for reelection in 2024 in January. The move is a major boost for Democrats in the state.
Scott Parkinson, a longtime adviser to Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and top Club for Growth executive, recently announced his 2024 bid to challenge Kaine. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a solid Democratic seat.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
Klobuchar is running for a fourth term in 2024. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a solid Democratic seat.
Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ)
Menendez, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, intends to seek reelection. Menendez, 69, has held the office since 2006. New Jersey’s senior senator is expected to face a Democratic primary. Joe Signorello III, who serves as mayor of the town of Roselle Park, plans to run in the Democratic primary against Menendez. Drug and alcohol counselor Christina A. Khalil also filed to seek the Democratic Senate nomination. The seat is considered a solid Democratic seat.
Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT)
Murphy is running for a third term in 2024. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a solid Democratic seat.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)
Rosen announced her intention to run for reelection last month in what is expected to be a competitive race in a battleground state President Joe Biden carried narrowly in 2020. Her colleague, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), successfully staved off a challenge from Republican Adam Laxalt during the 2022 midterm cycle by about 8,000 votes. The only Republican challenger so far is Jim Marchant, who previously lost races for secretary of state and Congress.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT)
Tester announced his reelection bid for a fourth term in mid-February, which is a critical seat that Democrats must defend to keep their Senate majority in 2024. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is listing the seat as a top prospect. Republicans have yet to field a candidate to face Tester, although Reps. Ryan Zinke, Matt Rosendale, and Gov. Greg Gianforte are among Republicans’ possible recruits. NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, also from Montana, is working to recruit businessman and veteran Tim Sheehy to run. Tester was the top fundraiser among vulnerable Democratic senators during the first quarter of 2023, taking in more than $5 million. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a lean Democratic seat.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)
Warren made her third-term bid official toward the end of March. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a solid Democratic seat.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
Whitehouse is running for reelection for a fourth term. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a solid Democratic seat.
Sen. Angus King (I-ME)
King is seeking a third term in the Senate in 2024. Elected in 2012, King caucuses with the Democrats. David Costello, a Democrat, entered the race against King last month, although it’s considered a long shot.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Cruz is running for reelection for a third term. Last quarter, he raised about $1.5 million, according to his campaign. Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) announced this month that he will be challenging Cruz. Allred hauled $2.2 million to his congressional account, per elections records. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a likely Republican seat.
Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE)
Fischer is running for reelection for a third term. Her race is considered a safe Republican seat.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO)
Hawley is seeking a second term in the Senate. Democrat Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran and self-described populist, is mounting a bid against Hawley. The race is considered a safe Republican seat.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL)
Scott is seeking a second term in the Senate. Scott, who was first elected to the Senate in 2018, previously served as Florida’s governor for two terms. Scott, who was first elected to the Senate in 2018, previously served as Florida’s governor for two terms. He also served as the NRSC chairman last cycle, in which the Democrats expanded their majority by one seat. Scott will face a challenge in the GOP primary for his seat after businessman and lawyer Keith Gross filed to run against him as a Republican. Democrats have had a short list of potential candidates, but so far, none have signaled they are running. The Cook Political Reportranks the race as a likely Republican seat.
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS)
Wicker is seeking a third term. He is currently the top Republican serving on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Ty Pinkins, an Army veteran and attorney, announced earlier this year that he intends to run as a Democrat to challenge Wicker. The seat is considered solidly Republican.
Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE)
Ricketts has announced he will run in a special election to represent Nebraska in 2024. Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) appointed him to the Senate following the resignation of Sen. Ben Sasse (R-NE). The race is considered a solid Republican seat.
A LOOK AT WHAT PROGRAMS COULD BE AFFECTED IF THE US DEFAULTS ON ITS LOANS
Senators who are not seeking reelection
Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD)
Cardin recently announced he will not seek reelection in 2024. He was elected to the Senate in 2006, replacing Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-MD). Some of the issues that Cardin championed include human rights, the Paycheck Protection Program, funding the Chesapeake Bay, and legislation expanding Medicare coverage. While Maryland is a safe blue state, the battle to replace Cardin will be fiercely competitive. Contenders to replace Cardin could include Prince George’s County executive Angela Alsobrooks, Rep. David Trone (D-MD), Rep. John Sarbanes (D-MD), Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), who is in remission from cancer, and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando.
Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE)
Carper announced Monday that he plans to retire at the end of his fourth term, shaking up a generally Democratic stronghold state with an open Senate seat in 2024. In Delaware, prominent Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) is looking to be the favorite to replace Carper. She already represents the entire state as the at-large representative, and she is a woman of color.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)
Feinstein announced an end to her more than 30 years in the Senate in late February. There’s speculation Feinstein’s seat may need to be filled sooner than the 2024 election after her health has deteriorated. Feinstein’s retirement has led to a major intraparty battle to replace her. Reps. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Barbara Lee (D-CA), and Katie Porter (D-CA) have announced runs for the seat.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)
Stabenow announced she would not seek reelection in January. The Michigan senator’s decision, who serves as the No. 3 Democrat in the chamber, puts the seat in a crucial swing state in play for Republicans. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has largely cleared the field in what could have been a messy Senate primary. So far, two GOP candidates have entered the race. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a lean Democratic seat.
Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN)
Braun announced he is not seeking reelection and instead launched a campaign to become the governor of Indiana. The race to replace him narrowed significantly after Former GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels announced he would not run for Senate, effectively clearing the field for Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN). The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a solid Republican seat.
Senators who have not announced plans for 2024
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV)
Manchin, widely considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle, said he won’t decide on whether to run for reelection until the end of the year. Manchin is the only senator up for reelection in a state former President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2020 who has not made his intentions known. Senate Republicans were able to recruit Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), who announced his run last month, teeing up what is expected to be a bruising GOP primary. Justice will face Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV), who has the backing of the Club for Growth, an influential conservative group that spent some $100 million in the last election cycle. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as a toss-up.
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ)
Democratic-turned-independent Sinema has not yet set whether she will seek a second term in 2024. Progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) announced in January he will run for the Senate in 2024, setting up a likely three-way race. The race on the Republican side is still developing and could take longer to take shape due to Arizona’s filing deadline, which is next April. The state’s primaries aren’t until August 2024. Former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake is considering running for the Senate seat. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb became the first Republican to enter the race last month. Republican Blake Masters, who lost his Senate bid last year by 5 percentage points, is still considering a run. So is Abe Hamadeh, who lost the 2022 attorney general’s race, Karrin Taylor Robson, who lost the gubernatorial primary to Lake last year, and Republican businessman Jim Lamon, who lost in the primary for Arizona’s other Senate seat in 2022. The race is considered one of the most unpredictable of the cycle, and the Cook Political Report ranks the race as a toss-up.
Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT)
Romney has filed paperwork to run for reelection in 2024 but has not technically announced his intention to run. Romney has been notable throughout his first Senate term for his willingness to break with other Republicans on key issues. The junior Utah senator especially took on that reputation after voting to convict Trump in his first impeachment trial in 2019, making him the first senator to vote to remove a president of the same party. Romney could face a primary, Republican Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson announced he was forming an exploratory committee ahead of the primary. The seat is considered solidly Republican.
Sen. John Barrasso (R-KY)
Barrasso has not technically announced his reelection bid. Barrasso, the third-ranking member in the Senate Republican leadership who has been serving since 2007, is expected to run for reelection.
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN)
Blackburn also has not announced her run for a second term but is widely expected to run.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND)
Cramer has not made his intentions known but is expected to seek a second term in the Senate.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)
Sanders has not yet announced his intentions for 2024 but is widely expected to seek reelection. Sanders caucuses with the Democrats.
