July 22, 2025 9:32:21 PM
Will Global Stock Markets Crash In 2023?

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019โ€’2023, Visual Capitalist's Omri Wallach plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether โ€œmajor stock markets around the world will crashโ€ in the following year, and were asked to respond either โ€œlikelyโ€ or โ€œunlikelyโ€.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers werenโ€™t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each countryโ€™s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by Country Likely (2023) Unlikely (2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina 48% 28%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia 57% 25%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium 49% 27%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil 44% 40%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada 45% 32%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile 59% 29%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China 40% 50%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France 42% 35%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany 43% 30%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom) 47% 30%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary 33% 47%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India 59% 27%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel 35% 42%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy 42% 35%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan 40% 26%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia 71% 15%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico 50% 29%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands 44% 31%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru 56% 30%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland 66% 19%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia 51% 29%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa 63% 23%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea 52% 37%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain 49% 31%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden 50% 33%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey 47% 38%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States 47% 31%
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average 50% 31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40โ€“47% of each memberโ€™s citizens responding โ€œlikelyโ€ compared to 26โ€“35% responding โ€œunlikely.โ€

The most pessimistic responses came from MalaysiaPoland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were ChinaIsrael, and Hungary. China had the highest โ€œunlikelyโ€ response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded โ€œlikelyโ€ compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions % Likely Change (2019-2023) % Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina +20 pp -18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia +15 pp -15 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium +09 pp -12 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil +11 pp -11 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada +12 pp -13 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile +32 pp -23 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China +12 pp -09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France +06 pp -05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany +10 pp -07 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom) 0 pp -02 pp
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary +09 pp -08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India +26 pp -24 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel +03 pp 0 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy +11 pp -08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan -04 pp -06 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia +07 pp -09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico +20 pp -21 pp
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands +03 pp -09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru +30 pp -23 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland +21 pp -18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia +03 pp -11 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa +28 pp -26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea +26 pp -26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain +18 pp -05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden +04 pp -02 pp
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey +05 pp -06 pp
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States +09 pp -15 pp
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average +13 pp -13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didnโ€™t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in โ€œlikelyโ€ responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous yearโ€™s predictions didnโ€™t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/19/2023 - 06:55

For the upcoming year, expert predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.

This chart from Gilbert Fontana skips past expert predictions, and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.

Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions surveys from 2019โ€’2023, Visual Capitalistโ€™s Omri Wallach plots the percentage of average citizens that think global stock markets will crash in the upcoming year.

Methodology

The annual reports used to generate the charts draw from a 36-country survey of more than 24,000 adults. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, with countries in the G7 and other major economies including China, Brazil, and South Korea having approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.

Specifically, respondents were asked a question on whether โ€œmajor stock markets around the world will crashโ€ in the following year, and were asked to respond either โ€œlikelyโ€ or โ€œunlikelyโ€.

Responses were collected at the end of the previous year in question. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Responses of uncertainty or non-answers werenโ€™t included in the chart above.

And across the board, each countryโ€™s data was also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.

Stock Markets Crash Predictions By Country

When looking forward to 2023, most of the respondents from around the world felt that the likelihood of global stock markets crashing was more likely than unlikely.

Market Crash Predictions by Country Likely (2023) Unlikely (2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina 48% 28%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia 57% 25%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium 49% 27%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil 44% 40%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada 45% 32%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile 59% 29%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China 40% 50%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France 42% 35%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany 43% 30%
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom) 47% 30%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary 33% 47%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India 59% 27%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel 35% 42%
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy 42% 35%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan 40% 26%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia 71% 15%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico 50% 29%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands 44% 31%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru 56% 30%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland 66% 19%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia 51% 29%
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa 63% 23%
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea 52% 37%
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain 49% 31%
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden 50% 33%
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey 47% 38%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States 47% 31%
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average 50% 31%

In 24 of the 27 countries sampled, citizens thought it was more likely than not that global stock markets would crash in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40โ€“47% of each memberโ€™s citizens responding โ€œlikelyโ€ compared to 26โ€“35% responding โ€œunlikely.โ€

The most pessimistic responses came from MalaysiaPoland, and South Africa, where more than 60% of respondents thought it was likely that markets would crash in 2023. Malaysian citizens led the way with 71% viewing a 2023 crash as likely.

The only three countries where citizens believed a 2023 stock market crash was less likely were ChinaIsrael, and Hungary. China had the highest โ€œunlikelyโ€ response rate at 50%, while in Hungary, just 33% of respondents responded โ€œlikelyโ€ compared to 47% responding unlikely.

Changing Stock Market Sentiments

When comparing 2023 responses to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:

Change in Market Crash Predictions % Likely Change (2019-2023) % Unlikely Change (2019-2023)
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina +20 pp -18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia +15 pp -15 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium +09 pp -12 pp
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil +11 pp -11 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada +12 pp -13 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Chile +32 pp -23 pp
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China +12 pp -09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France +06 pp -05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany +10 pp -07 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Great Britain (United Kingdom) 0 pp -02 pp
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Hungary +09 pp -08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India +26 pp -24 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Israel +03 pp 0 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Italy +11 pp -08 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan -04 pp -06 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡พ Malaysia +07 pp -09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico +20 pp -21 pp
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands +03 pp -09 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช Peru +30 pp -23 pp
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ Poland +21 pp -18 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia +03 pp -11 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa +28 pp -26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea +26 pp -26 pp
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain +18 pp -05 pp
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden +04 pp -02 pp
๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey +05 pp -06 pp
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States +09 pp -15 pp
๐ŸŒŽ Global Average +13 pp -13 pp

Responses of global stock markets likely crashing rose in 25 of the 27 countries, with 8 countries increasing by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Notably, neighbors Chile and Peru had the highest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp respectively.

But neighboring sentiments didnโ€™t track worldwide. For example, while South Korea had one of the biggest increases in โ€œlikelyโ€ responses towards stock markets crashing at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower likelihood by 4 pp.

While global sentiment is becoming increasingly pessimistic, we can also see that previous yearโ€™s predictions didnโ€™t always pan out. So the question remains, what will 2023 really bring?

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