The window for last-minute Democratic primary challengers to President Joe Biden to enter the 2024 race is rapidly closing, as the deadline to file for several state primaries has passed and the Michigan cutoff is just days away.
The swing state has proven to be pivotal in elections in past cycles, and as concerns over Biden’s age and mental acuity grow, speculation over potential Democratic opponents has too, despite the practical impossibility of gaining ballot access for the party’s primary this late in the cycle. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), specifically, has been the consistent subject of such rumors and encouragement, but the California governor has maintained that he doesn’t plan on running.
However, while Newsom has verbally denied he plans to run, critics have noted that his actions paint a different picture, thus keeping speculation alive.
If Newsom or another prominent Democrat such as Govs. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI), J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), Josh Shapiro (D-PA), or Wes Moore (D-MD) were to launch a buzzer-beater campaign, they would need to do so immediately to get on the primary ballot in Michigan.
Former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate and author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) are on the primary ballot already, alongside Biden. All three candidates were added to the Democratic primary ballot in Michigan on Nov. 13, when Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson was required by state law to “issue a ‘list of the individuals generally advocated by the national news media to be potential candidates.'”
Other candidates, though, can still file a nominating petition by Dec. 8 with 14,020 valid signatures to gain access.
According to Michigan-based Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe, “there’s a lot more mischief on the left than there is on the right, right now. And it’s mischief that can undercut Biden’s reelection.”
Phillips boasts a record very similar to that of Biden and shares many policy preferences. The Minnesota Democrat has been running on ushering in a new era of leadership in the Democratic Party, with his main difference from Biden being age — Phillips is 54, while Biden is 81. Age is a problem that may be particularly important in Michigan as former President Donald Trump and Biden remain in a relative dead heat in the state, with Trump leading in several measures.
Phillips’s campaign indicated that, aside from the early voting states like New Hampshire, Michigan is an important element in their primary strategy.
Cabel Roe noted Marianne Williamson might fare particularly well in Michigan among pro-Palestinian voters. Michigan is known to have the largest Arab population in the U.S., with a significant number of people of Palestinian descent, specifically in the Dearborn area. Biden’s support of Israel during the war in Gaza has seen his already decreasing support among Arab Americans begin to accelerate downward.
Williamson has been vocal against Israel’s role in the war and has called for a “permanent ceasefire.” This could prove attractive for these Arab American voters who are disillusioned with Biden.
“If we’re here in the 11th hour and you haven’t figured out how to get on the ballot, you’re probably in a tough spot,” Cabel Roe said. “I don’t think Biden has any risks as it relates to the primary.”
While Biden isn’t likely to lose the Feb. 27 primary, a significant share of voters defecting to other primary candidates could still spell trouble for his campaign going into the general election in November 2024.
For the same reason Arab Americans might opt for a Biden alternative in the primary, they could also choose to vote for independent or minor party candidates such as Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
“They might not be ending up in the Republican column, but they are a vote that’s not going to the Democratic candidate. And given how purple Michigan truly is, every one of those matters significantly,” Cabel Roe added.
Renegade candidates in the state have proven to disrupt election outcomes in the past — in the 2016 presidential election, in which Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Michigan by roughly 10,000 votes, independent and minor party candidates received 275,878 votes.
Stein has frequently been blamed for Clinton’s loss in 2016, having garnered about 1.5 million votes in the election and notably pulling more than 50,000 in Michigan, a larger number of votes than Clinton lost by.
Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), a surrogate for Biden’s campaign, isn’t concerned that Biden might suffer Clinton’s 2016 fate in the general election, though. “Last year, Michigan Democrats from top to bottom ran and won on the President’s agenda resulting in a historic Democratic trifecta in Lansing,” she said in a statement.
“Michiganders know the President’s agenda is delivering for them, and haven’t forgotten the very real threat that the MAGA agenda of attacking our freedoms and leaving workers behind would have on our state. Michigan is Biden country, and the Biden campaign isn’t taking a single voter for granted as they put in the work to win next November,” the congresswoman said.
While Trump and Biden’s relative unpopularity and significant concerns over legal trouble and age, respectively, could lead to a boom in third-party voters, there are also several issues unique to 2024 that could keep voters loyal to one of the major parties, particularly in a state like Michigan.
With less than a year until the 2024 election, abortion, healthcare, and the economy are expected to be at the forefront, and 2024 will mark the first presidential election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court. In the midterm and statewide elections following the decision, Republicans have seen larger losses than expected.
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Michigan was also the primary backdrop for the United Auto Workers strike earlier this fall, during which Biden made history as the first president to join workers on the picket line. But Trump also visited with autoworkers for a speech in Michigan during the strike, looking to undermine the Democratic Party’s blue-collar support as both parties undergo demographic shifts.
Repealing the Affordable Care Act reemerged as a top issue after Trump vowed to nix it should he win in 2024. In the 2010s, Republicans failed to repeal and replace former President Barack Obama’s hallmark policy. The issue has further been deemed an electoral loser by those on both sides of the aisle. Now, the Biden campaign is homing in on plans to focus on maintaining Obamacare and accuse Republicans of trying to take it away.
