Senate Democratic candidates are faring better in presidential battleground states than President Joe Biden as the party fights to maintain its razor-thin, one-seat majority.
The results, while early in the general election cycle, bode well for Senate Democrats but come with a warning: Biden could drag them down at the ballot box.
One of the biggest reasons is incumbent name recognition, per Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Political Report. Democratic candidates in swing states with open Senate seats are outperforming Biden by a smaller margin than incumbents.
Here are the top three states where Senate Democrats are outpacing Biden the most, according to recent surveys from Cook Political Report conducted in partnership with polling firms BSG and GS Strategy Group.
Nevada
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is running for a second term and will face off against the winner of the June 11 Republican primary. Former Army Capt. Sam Brown is heavily favored to win against Jeff Gunter, a dermatologist who served as former President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Iceland.
Rosen’s polling fares 8 percentage points better than that of Biden, with 48%-41% against an unnamed Republican opponent. The president is at just 40% to Trump’s 49%.
Pennsylvania
In Biden’s birth state, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is seeking a fourth consecutive term against Trump-backed Republican nominee David McCormick.
Casey’s support is 4 percentage points ahead of the president’s. Casey was 49%-41% against McCormick compared to Biden’s 45% to Trump’s 48%.
Despite the vulnerability, Casey stumped with Biden on the campaign trail Wednesday as the president and Vice President Kamala Harris unveiled a new initiative in Philadelphia aimed at energizing black voters. Casey recently told the Washington Examiner that incumbents such as himself can best position themselves for reelection if they “effectively” communicate their records.
“I think that when you’re running for public office, you’ve got to make the case to voters about what you’ve done and what you hope to do if you’re, in the case of an incumbent, what you hope to do if you’re reelected,” he said. “And as long as you do that and you do it effectively and you communicate with voters, you should be in good shape.”
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Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is running for a third consecutive term and will face the winner of the Aug. 13 GOP primary. Businessman Eric Hovde, who is endorsed by Trump, is heavily favored to clinch the nomination.
Baldwin’s polling bests Biden’s by 4 percentage points. She was at 49% to Hovde’s 37%, compared to Biden and Trump both at 45%.
Mabinty Quarshie and David Sivak contributed to this report.
