Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have inherited President Joe Biden‘s polling advantage among seniors despite former President Donald Trump‘s appeals to the demographic and past performance.
While much has been made of the enthusiasm for Harris among Generation Z voters, memes and all, seniors have traditionally been a more reliable voting group, and Trump does not seem to be conceding it.
AARP pollster Jeff Liszt described seniors as a demographic battleground, with Trump performing better among voters aged 50 to 64 but voters 65 and older being “more competitive.”
“One of the big questions now is whether or not that dynamic ends up changing with the change of candidates on the Democratic side,” Liszt told the Washington Examiner. “One thing that we do know is that campaigns need to be paying attention to the issues that matter to older voters because in critical swing states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, older voters 50-plus were a majority of the electorate in 2020 and they’re still telling us that they are more motivated to vote than younger voters.”
To that end, Biden and Harris announced this week that Medicare is expected to save $6 billion through the first round of price negotiations regarding 10 widely used drugs, saving seniors $1.5 billion on out-of-pocket drug costs starting in 2026. The day before Trump delivered what was supposed to be an economic address, despite downplaying the importance of the economy as a voter issue, he spoke before a sign that read, “No Tax on Social Security.”
“When you ask older voters what matters to them, in all of these swing states, it’s economic issues,” Liszt said. “You’ve got some issues that excite the party bases in each party. Republicans are more interested in immigration as an issue. Democrats, especially Democrats over 50, tend to be more interested in threats to democracy. Democrats are also caring a lot about women’s reproductive rights, but overall, economic issues are the top issues.”
For Liszt, that includes Social Security and inflation, considering more than 60% of Michigan voters aged 50 and older told AARP pollsters last week that the entitlement program is or will be a major source of income for them and 90% said they are or will be depending on it to a degree. In that survey, those respondents also preferred Trump by 2 percentage points, 49% to 47%.
Simultaneously, last week’s New York Times-Siena College poll found Harris ahead with voters aged 65 and older in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 52% to 41%, when third parties and independents were taken into account.
“In our last poll on Aug. 4, we had Harris plus 3 [points] with Gen Z and plus 11 with ‘boomers,’” Marist Institute for Public Opinion Director Lee M. Miringoff told the Washington Examiner, with the baby boomer generation including those aged 60. “The first group is low compared to 2020, but the older group is very strong for her, and, of course, it’s a much larger group to have in your corner.”
“The Social Security play is an issue that is easy to understand for seniors because it means more money in their pockets from one check to the next,” Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos added to the Washington Examiner. “Trump won seniors in 2020, according to the exit polls, 52% to 47%, but he is losing them today. This is a poll-driven policy attempt to grab back that important voting bloc.”
Association of Mature American Citizens senior adviser Brittany Baldwin contended members of her 50-plus organization, often referred to as a conservative-leaning AARP, cared about inflation, immigration, crime, and Medicare Advantage, with Biden and Harris announcing this year it will decrease 2025 plan base payments for the latter by an average of 0.16%.
“If Harris does what she has said she’s going to do and provides amnesty to 10 million or more illegal immigrants that could very well bankrupt Social Security and Medicare, and that is certainly a concern to our members as well,” Baldwin told the Washington Examiner.
Biden and Harris proposed a day one comprehensive immigration reform bill that would create a pathway to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants, putting an estimated 11 million on an eight-year path to citizenship.
Baldwin underscored, too, the Trump administration’s temporary, voluntary Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services program that permitted several Medicare Part D prescription drug plans to cap monthly out-of-pocket insulin copay costs at $35 or less. Biden’s program is broader, mandating that all Medicare drug schemes cap out-of-pocket insulin costs.
“Under the Trump presidency, inflation was historically very low, 401(k)s had a record high, and so seniors saw not only stability but also economic growth that greatly helped them,” Baldwin said. “Many of these seniors have been feeling the economic pain for the last three years, and so is a slight relief now going to be enough for them to kind of free up that economic pain?”
But after experiencing success in 2022 by criticizing Sen. Rick Scott‘s (R-FL) rescinded plan to sunset entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, Democrats are hoping they can weaponize similar issues with the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, from which Trump is distancing himself, though it may not be easy.
AARP’s Liszt added that drug prices, including negotiating Medicare costs, and support for caregivers, particularly those who are part of the “sandwich generation” and are looking after their children and their parents, present other political opportunities for both parties.
“I can sort of take off my AARP hat for a moment because I was not involved in AARP’s research back in the early 2000s but I think that if you had asked a question about which party people trust more on Social Security in 2005 or 2006 when George W. Bush had proposals partially privatizing Social Security, and when Democrats were attacking Republicans a lot over it in the 2006 midterms, you would have seen double-digit advantages for Democrats on Social Security and you’re not at this moment,” he said. “Social Security is no longer a core strength for Democrats. It’s very much an up-for-grabs issue.”
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Meanwhile, the Trump campaign argues the former president “is running for all Americans because no matter your age, whether you are 18 or 89, Kamala Harris’ radical agenda created an invasion at the southern border, an economic crisis with historic inflation and sky-high prices, and weakened our country’s power on the world stage.”
“Gen Z, seniors, and everyone in between deserve a president that will cut taxes, lower prices, enforce law and order, end the border invasion, and put America first,” Republican National Committee spokeswoman Anna Kelly told the Washington Examiner.
