New York will soon hold a special election for Rep. Elise Stefanik‘s (R-NY) seat in the 21st Congressional District after the House Republican Conference chairwoman announced she would step down and accept an ambassadorship in the next Trump administration.
With Stefanik accepting the role of President-elect Donald Trump‘s U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, she will have to vacate her seat in the 21st District — a move that could have a significant impact on the size of the Republican majority as the final 2024 race results roll in.
Once Stefanik vacates her seat, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) will need to call a special election within 10 days, with an election required to happen within 70 to 80 days after that. Special elections are not a new move for Hochul, who had to call one for New York’s 3rd District after former Republican Rep. George Santos was expelled from Congress.
In that special election, now-Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) flipped the 3rd District back to Democrats after Santos flipped it in 2022. Suozzi held the seat until 2022 but retired to run for New York governor. He won a full term on Nov. 5.
In Stefanik’s case, the timing of a special election will depend on when Stefanik intends to vacate her seat. She would likely do so as soon as she is confirmed or when Trump is sworn in as president in January. This means House Republicans would be down one seat for their majority until as late as April 20, which is 90 days from Inauguration Day.
Currently, Republicans hold a 214-204 majority, with 17 races remaining too close to call. It is projected for the GOP to maintain the House majority with equal or slimmer razor-thin margins.
Given the 21st District is reliably conservative, eyes are on the slate of Republicans who might throw their hat into the ring for Stefanik’s seat. One notable contender is Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), who lost his reelection to Democrat Josh Riley for New York’s 19th District last Tuesday. A source familiar confirmed to the Washington Examiner that Molinaro is in the mix to be Stefanik’s successor.
Other notable Republican names include state Sen. Dan Stec, Rensselaer County Executive Steven McLaughlin, and state Assemblymen Robert Smullen and Christopher Tague. On the Democratic side, former House candidate Paula Collins is a major contender, as well as Assemblyman Bill Jones.
Collins lost to Stefanik in the 2024 election, 62.3% to 37.7%. The day after Election Day, Collins announced on her campaign site that she would be running for the 21st District in the 2026 midterm elections. The Washington Examiner reached out to Collins to see whether she would put her name forward for the Democratic special election candidacy.
As with many states, the candidates for the New York 21st District special election will be selected by the 15 county parties represented by the seat. From there, each party will narrow down its pool of candidates to one, and the two nominated will head to the special election to finish out the remainder of Stefanik’s term.
Some counties are not announcing the early GOP front-runners for a special election, noting that Monday is a holiday.
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“Today is about honoring our Veterans, there will be plenty of time to discuss a qualified candidate to continue the exceptional work Congresswoman Stefanik has done for NY 21,” Jason Ellis, Franklin County Republican Committee chairman, said in a statement to the Washington Examiner. “We are confident we can add this to the historic record of this election cycle.”
There have been several special elections called over the 118th Congress after several lawmakers either passed away or opted to seek higher office, take on a statewide position, or retire from politics altogether. Most recently, Rep. LaMonica McIver (D-NJ) was elected to Congress just before October recess to fill the seat of the late Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr., who died in April. McIver won her election to a full term last week.
