Pete Hegseth is fighting for his future as the next secretary of defense, but his success or failure could have implications for others nominated by President-elect Donald Trump.
Hegseth is the latest Trump pick to face an uncertain future in a Republican-controlled Senate after former Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican, withdrew from consideration to be attorney general.
Not only are reports of heavy drinking and womanizing swirling around Hegseth but so are rumors of possible replacement candidates, including some with closer ties to Washington Republicans than the 44-year-old.
For Trump, it is an early test of his influence with the incoming Republican Senate majority after a presidential election in which he swept all seven battleground states and won the popular vote.
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While Trump’s national lead has been eroded as deep-blue California has continued to count votes for weeks, Trump is still only the second Republican presidential nominee to win the popular vote since 1988 and the first since 2004. He is also the first non-Bush to do so since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
This time, Trump met or exceeded expectations in the top battleground states, while Republicans won just one Senate race in these highly competitive areas, gaining a seat in Pennsylvania. Trump ran ahead of the purple-state GOP Senate candidates.
But that so far hasn’t made Senate Republicans more deferential as Trump has selected unconventional nominees who often tend to be communicators more than bureaucrats and are in some cases viewed as hostile to the missions of the departments to which they are being appointed.
In fact, Republican underperformance in the swing states means Trump’s party holds 53 Senate seats, mainly in safe red states. That means without Democratic help, no Trump nominee can lose more than three Republican votes in the upper chamber and win confirmation. When Vice President-elect J.D. Vance takes office in January, he will have a tiebreaking vote.
But Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) aren’t considered reliable votes for Trump. Neither is Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who has stepped down from leadership at least partially in order to be more independent of the White House.
Moreover, many of the incumbent Republican senators are less dependent on the anti-establishment crossover votes that helped pull Trump across the finish line in the Electoral College.
Trump has nevertheless sought to put together a more diverse team, in terms of ideology and experience in government, than during his first term. There were numerous reports that he was considering installing many of his more controversial nominees by recess appointment, at least temporarily avoiding Senate confirmation votes. Instead, the Trump team has up to this point followed the traditional process.
If Hegseth joins Gaetz in being withdrawn, the question remains whether this will make it easier or harder for health and human services nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr., would-be director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, possible new FBI director Kash Patel, and others who could ruffle Republicans feathers to be confirmed. If the latter, it is also possible that recess appointments become a live option again.
Hegseth has been meeting with Senate Republicans, including noncommittal Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and incoming Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS). Recent controversies aside, Ernst is a combat veteran. Hegseth has been critical of the concept of women serving in combat.
The embattled nominee has also been defending himself in media interviews, including an extended sitdown with former Fox News colleague Megyn Kelly. Hegseth’s mother, whose since-retracted criticism of her son’s character leaked to the press, also appeared on Fox to defend him and has reportedly been making calls to senators on behalf of her son.
Senate Republicans aren’t the only ones who have to decide how much political capital they want to spend on intraparty fights with at least two years of unified government ahead of them. Trump has to make this decision too. He will be advised, if he has not received such counsel already, that there are prospects with Hegseth’s virtues, and possibly more experience running large organizations, without his baggage.
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Republicans could lose their razor-thin House majority in the 2026 midterm elections. The term-limited Trump will become something of a lame duck after that, with the 2028 presidential election looming.
Republicans on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue will want to hit the ground running on their shared policy agenda, which leaves a limited amount of time for them to spar over the makeup of the future Trump administration.
