Former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) launched a Senate bid against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) on Monday, injecting new life into Democrats’ uphill effort to expand the 2026 map and reclaim the chamber.
Democrats had spent months pressing the 52-year-old former congresswoman to jump into the race, seeing her as a way to stretch an already challenging Senate map. With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority, Democrats would need to flip at least four GOP-held seats while successfully defending every seat they already control to take back the Senate.
MARY PELTOLA ANNOUNCES RUN FOR SENATE IN RECRUITING WIN FOR DEMOCRATS
That path likely runs through pickups in Maine and North Carolina, plus at least one upset in redder territory such as Iowa, Ohio, or Alaska, while also holding on in Georgia and Michigan, both of which backed President Donald Trump last year.
Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said Peltola’s candidacy stands out in a cycle where few Democrats can credibly compete in Republican-leaning states, pointing to her deep ties in Alaska, focus on local economic issues, and ability to attract independent voters.
“With Congresswoman Peltola’s announcement that she’s throwing her hat in the ring for the Senate, Democrats’ national objectives just got a little bit less uphill,” Reinish said.
The Cook Political Report shifted its race ratings from Solid to Lean Republican, citing Peltola’s strong standing in Alaska politics and her demonstrated ability to win over voters outside her party. However, they note that Sullivan begins the race with a structural advantage in a state that Trump carried by 14 points.
Democratic strategist and pollster Brad Bannon said Peltola’s entry doesn’t suddenly flip the race but does meaningfully improve Democrats’ odds.
“This isn’t a cure-all, and it doesn’t mean Democrats are suddenly taking over the Senate,” Bannon said. “But it absolutely raises the probability that Alaska is in play.”
Alaska’s electorate is dominated by voters who don’t identify with either major party, with Republicans accounting for roughly 24% of registered voters and Democrats about 13%. This dynamic has historically allowed candidates with crossover appeal to remain competitive statewide.
Sullivan’s backing of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could give Democrats an opening, particularly over Medicaid reductions that affect roughly a third of Alaska’s population. Still, that line of attack may be blunted by Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-AK) support for the legislation after she negotiated additional funding for rural hospitals.
Bannon said healthcare could still emerge as a defining issue in the race, given Alaska’s heavy reliance on federal programs.
“There are a lot of people in Alaska whose health coverage is directly tied to federal programs,” he said. “That creates real vulnerability if the debate becomes local and personal.”
Before arriving in Washington, Peltola built her career in Alaska, serving as a tribal court judge in Bethel and later in the state House. She rose to national prominence in 2022 when she became the first Alaska Native and the first woman elected to the state’s at-large House seat after winning a special election to complete the term of the late Republican Rep. Don Young, then securing a full term later that year. Peltola was defeated in her 2024 reelection bid by Republican Nick Begich, now Alaska’s sole House member.
Democratic leaders see Peltola as a centrist with unusual statewide appeal, reinforced by endorsements rarely seen for a Democrat in Alaska, including backing from Murkowski and the National Rifle Association.
But that support is not carrying over into her Senate bid. Murkowski announced Monday that she is backing Sullivan for reelection, siding with her longtime colleague despite previously endorsing Peltola in her House races.
“We’ve had a pretty solid team here in the Senate for the past 12 years,” Murkowski told Alaska Public Radio. “So we want to figure out how we’re going to keep the majority. And Dan delivers that.”
Republicans also moved quickly to frame Peltola’s entry into the race as a political liability. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, released a statement attacking her voting record and past positions, signaling that national Republican groups are prepared to contest the race aggressively.
Some Republicans, however, aren’t convinced Democrats are serious about competing in Alaska. GOP Strategist Dennis Lennox suggested Peltola’s candidacy may be more about forcing Republicans to play defense elsewhere than flipping the seat.
“Alaska is a weird state that has a history of weird things happening at the ballot box,” Lennox said. “Still, this looks more like Democrats trying to deke Republicans into spending money in the Last Frontier that might otherwise be spent in North Carolina, Maine, and Michigan.”
PELTOLA CAMPAIGN PUTS MURKOWSKI IN TOUGH ENDORSEMENT SPOT
Reinish said that the dynamic alone could reshape the race.
“At a minimum, this forces Republicans to spend time and money in a place they weren’t expecting to,” he said.
