Cornyn, Paxton Advance to Runoff in Texas Republican Primary

Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn overperformed most expectations Tuesday in his fight for a fifth term, advancing to a runoff in the Texas Senate Republican primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton.

The race was called by the Associated Press (AP) at 10:50 am ET. With an estimated 65.8 percent of the vote in, Cornyn led with 658,274 votes, 42.5 percent, to Paxton’s 632,472 votes, 40.8 percent.

Rep. Wesley Hunt finished a distant third with around 13 percent of the projected vote and will be out of office upon the completion of his current House term.

The Washington Republican establishment, led by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans, pulled out all the stops to support Cornyn, making the race the most expensive Senate primary in history. Cornyn and his allies spent tens of millions to boost Cornyn and attack Paxton and Hunt.

Their primary attack against Hunt was his poor attendance record in the House, both after and predating his last-minute entrance into the Senate race. Cornyn’s allies quickly turned on Hunt after polls showed his initial surge could keep Cornyn out of a runoff.

But the attacks against Paxton, who led throughout the race, were a different, intensely personal animal. Cornyn’s campaign led the way, attacking Paxton over his divorce and allegations of infidelity, as well as his many legal and ethical troubles, which Texas voters have mostly overlooked throughout Paxton’s career.

Cornyn himself said throughout the race that he could not in good conscience roll over for a man like Paxton to represent Texans in Washington. “Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton,” he said Tuesday night.

The discrepancy in spending — Cornyn and his allies outspent Paxton and his supporters by roughly $69 million to $4 million on advertising, according to the New York Times — although other estimates were much higher — failed to move the needle enough to keep Cornyn from a runoff, although few political prognosticators expected Cornyn to lead Paxton when the dust settled.

Yet instead of eating into Paxton’s support, Cornyn’s spending appeared to peel off support from Hunt, whose distant third-place finish underperformed most polling but likely represented widespread belief among voters that Cornyn and Paxton were the viable candidates.

Cornyn’s stronger-than-expected finish might not be enough to entice additional investment from donors. The Hunt supporters who did not defect to Cornyn on Election Day are likely more inclined to support Paxton in a runoff. Yet the establishment campaign organizations and wealthy interests backing Cornyn’s campaign are unlikely to give up without a fight.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), who backed Cornyn and directed tens of millions of dollars to support him, is certain to do all he can to entice President Donald Trump to endorse the senator’s reelection — a fight he unsuccessfully waged before the primary. Trump did not endorse in the primary despite at times teasing he might do so, saying he liked all three men. 

While Cornyn’s allies teased in the lead-up to the primary that more damning revelations about Paxton were to come, it is unlikely they would have sat on opposition research when Cornyn needed as strong a performance as possible to justify continued investment during the runoff.

Cornyn bewilderingly expressed a mixture of pessimism, apathy, and a zen acceptance leading up to the polls closing. The four-term senator’s message in his final days was that he was running out of a sense of optimism, never expressing optimism that he would win.

When attempting to clean up a flub in which he stated, “only the most radical people show up in the primary,” Cornyn said, “I just mean people who maybe are not representative of the Republican Party.”

Cornyn’s quest for runoff support might be aided by the Democrat primary, where state representative and progressive preacher Talarico emerged victorious. Talarico is seen as a far greater general election challenger than his opponent, the fiery Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Washington-based supporters of Cornyn painted Paxton as likely to endanger Republicans’ hold on the seat, and the stronger Talarico’s victory means Cornyn’s backers might double their efforts to keep the seat in Republican hands.

Paxton and his allies disputed the Cornyn narrative that he risks Republicans’ hold in conservative Texas, insisting that establishment Republicans are protecting themselves against more MAGA-aligned Republicans instead of working to keep or expand the Senate Republican majority by spending in contested races.

“John spent $100 million, what a waste of money,” Paxton said Tuesday. “That money should have been going to Republicans in other states.”

Hunt’s entrance into the race infuriated many Washington Republicans backing Cornyn, with intensely personal official statements and social media exchanges pushing the bounds of professionalism.

In the latest example, the Thune-aligned Senate Leadership Fund, which supported Cornyn, spiked the football Tuesday night in a statement blistering Hunt, whose voters Cornyn will need to win the runoff (ironically, the politically tone-deaf statement blasts Hunt’s consultants).

“Congratulations to Wesley Hunt on an abysmal third place finish in Texas’ Republican primary,” an SLF statement read. “Instead of fighting for President Trump and conservative priorities, Wesley launched a career-ending vanity tour without any substance or political reasoning. While Wesley’s amateur consultants got wealthy on his senseless campaign, Republican voters are now forced to endure an even longer primary runoff election.”

The runoff will take place on May 26.

Bradley Jaye is Deputy Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.