Former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s stunning political collapse and hasty exit from California’s crowded governor’s race has opened up an opportunity for Obama-era Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra ahead of the June 2 primary, according to a new poll published Thursday.
With Swalwell out, Democrats are now splitting their vote between billionaire Tom Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, and Becerra, who gained 15 points among Democratic voters without Swalwell as an option on the ballot, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The newest poll, conducted on April 14-15, 2026, still shows the two Republicans in the contest, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, beating the Democratic field in the blue state race. The candidates are vying for the office of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA). Newsom is widely believed to be running for president in 2028.
The Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll of 1,000 likely primary voters from either party found Hilton with 17%, Bianco and Steyer at 14%, Becerra and Porter tied at 10%, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan with 5%. Twenty-three percent of voters were still undecided.
Thursday’s poll results will determine which candidates will appear at next week’s Inside California Politics governor’s debate. The show’s parent company, Nextsar Media Group, said it would use 5% support as the cutoff.
California’s all-party primary is June 2. Assuming no gubernatorial candidate captures 50% or more, the two top finishers will face off in the Nov. 3 general election.
For months, Democratic leaders have been worried that a fragmented field could split the vote and risk shutting Democrats out of the November contest altogether by boosting the two Republican candidates. Some Democratic activists had seen Swalwell as a candidate capable of consolidating support and countering anti-President Donald Trump momentum, but his exit has upended that calculation.
On April 10, the San Francisco Chronicle reported a former staffer had alleged Swalwell had sexually assaulted her twice while she was too intoxicated to consent. Swalwell categorically denied the allegations — but within 48 hours, four additional women came forward with their own claims. He suspended his campaign over the weekend and announced his immediate resignation from Congress on Monday.
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Steyer’s campaign moved quickly to capitalize on the fallout, highlighting a fresh round of endorsements. The new backing includes Rep. Jared Huffman (D-CA) and six state legislators, two of whom had previously supported Swalwell.
Porter’s campaign has yet to roll out new endorsements, but it circulated a memo arguing she stands to gain the most from Swalwell’s exit.
