The status of the U.S.-Iran deal is more uncertain than ever, with President Donald Trump declaring it “over” on Wednesday and three major waves of U.S. strikes being met with drone and missile attacks against Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Jordan. However, Iranian authorities have still appealed to the document and haven’t declared it dead in turn. The most sure sign that full-on war hasn’t resumed, however, is Israel’s absence from the most recent strikes.
Reserve Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, former chief of the research division for the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence and current head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told the Washington Examiner that Israel’s lack of participation in the new strikes comes from two angles: Israel’s lack of interest in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and Iran restraining itself from stepping on Jerusalem’s stated tripwire.
“The exchange of fire that is carried out right now focuses on the … Strait of Hormuz, and [Israel is] not that involved in this problem. It’s a problem of the United States and the Gulf states, and the rest of the world. But [Israel is] less involved in that issue,” he said.
Iran has also made it clear, in Kuperwasser’s view, that it doesn’t want Israel involved in the conflict again, which it has indicated by not firing drones or missiles toward Israel.
“As long as they don’t try to hit [Israel, it has] less incentive to get involved in this,” he added.
Alireza Nader, an independent analyst of Iran and the Middle East based in Washington, D.C., argued that Israel’s hesitance was for several other reasons, with the decision coming from Washington rather than Jerusalem.
For one, Nader said that the split between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is very real and has led to so much distrust that the U.S. doesn’t want Israel joining the fight.
“I think there is a pressure on the Trump administration to decouple, not necessarily from the alliance or anything like that, but I think … the United States and Israel have very different national interests when it comes to Iran,” he said.
Nader also argued that significant pressure is coming from the Gulf states, most of which don’t want to be seen as on the same side as Israel. The one exception is the United Arab Emirates, which has been noticeably absent from the conflict since May.
“Just imagine if Israeli ships show up in the Persian Gulf, the other states might not want to work with the United States,” he said. “So it’ll just break up the [Gulf Cooperation Council] coalition further, and that coalition is already fragile.”
Trump could also be looking to keep Israel out of the fight to have tighter control on the escalation ladder, fearing the situation could spiral out of control if Israel were to get involved.
“I think it’s easier for the Trump administration to manage the policy on Iran without Israel having a decisive say in it,” Nader said, something Israel is eager to do.
What’s little in doubt, Nader and Kuperwasser said, is that Israel is hoping that hostilities with Tehran will resume.
Despite Israel’s frustration with Washington over the U.S.-Iran deal, Kuperwasser argued that there were some benefits to the status quo. The situation in Lebanon, for instance, he views as highly favorable to Israel as it stands. He added that Jerusalem is satisfied with its current position and may not be looking for a knockout blow against Hezbollah at the moment.
“I think we are operating in Lebanon according to the agreement we have with the Lebanese government, under the auspices of the Americans, and this allows us to take action when necessary against threats emanating from Hezbollah. And that’s good enough for us. We don’t need anything more for the time being,” he said.
Pursuing a knockout punch to Hezbollah could be too costly at the moment, Kuperwasser argued.
“A final blow against Hezbollah would mean that we would have to take over wide areas in Lebanon. I don’t think that’s what we are up to,” he said. “What we want to do is to create the conditions that would enable the Lebanese government to regain the monopoly over the use of force from its territory and to … disarm [Hezbollah].”
Israel’s main priorities in Lebanon are ensuring the safety of its border areas and soldiers from Hezbollah attacks. At this rate, its objectives are on track to be completed.
The Israeli military has established a buffer zone in southern Lebanon and banished all residents from the areas so that Hezbollah fighters can’t mount a guerrilla campaign. While the move has created hundreds of thousands of refugees and laid waste to entire towns, it has been successful in limiting Israeli military casualties, which are a tiny fraction of those inflicted against Hezbollah.
US STRIKES TARGET IRAN’S ABILITY TO CONTROL STRAIT OF HORMUZ AFTER TRUMP DECLARES MOU ‘OVER’
Jerusalem has vowed not to leave its security zone until Hezbollah is completely disarmed. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz rebuffed suggestions from Trump that Israel could leave Lebanon on Thursday.
“We didn’t ask for anyone’s approval to enter Lebanon, and we don’t need approval to stay in Lebanon,” he said in a statement. “It is our right and duty to defend the residents of the Galilee and Israeli citizens from the threats of the jihadist terror group Hezbollah, which aims to destroy the State of Israel.”
