A state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin is shaping up to be the most contentious election of 2023, with record turnout and spending for a contest of its kind during an off-year.
The court’s conservative majority hangs in the balance as liberal Milwaukee County Judge Janet Protasiewicz and conservative ex-state Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly face off ahead of the April 4 general election. They were the two top vote-getters in last week’s nonpartisan primary election, and the race is garnering national interest — especially on the abortion front.
ANTI-ABORTION GROUP COMMITS $100K TO WISCONSIN SUPREME COURT RACE
Justice Patience Roggensack, who votes with the 4-3 conservative majority, is retiring after 20 years as several game-changing cases are working their way through the Wisconsin courts. Democrats see this as an opportunity to reshape Wisconsin law.
Here’s why the race is such a big deal.
Abortion access is on the line
An 1849 law criminalizing abortion took effect in Wisconsin immediately after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and returned the issue to the state in June. Wisconsin’s Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul sued to overturn the law, but the lawsuit has been caught up in the lower courts for months and is likely to come before the state Supreme Court. Meanwhile, no abortions are being performed in Wisconsin.
If Kelly wins, he would likely vote with conservatives to keep abortion illegal, while Protasiewicz would give the progressive bloc a crucial vote in overturning the law.
The specter of 2020 haunts the race
Wisconsin was one of the most controversial swing states during the 2020 presidential election, in which some state leaders considered sending fake electors to certify that former President Donald Trump won instead of President Joe Biden. Protasiewicz has tried to make the case that Kelly was involved in this plot since he apparently spoke to the state Republican Party chair about it.
“Look at what happened in the 2020 presidential election, and how the results of the Wisconsin election landed in the Supreme Court chamber,” Protasiewicz told Politico. “I think it’s more likely than not that the results of the 2024 presidential election could also end up in the Supreme Court chamber.”
Kelly told the New York Times during the primary that he has “no reason to believe” there was something wrong with Wisconsin’s election.
Spending is off the charts
Because abortion is front and center in the race, national abortion rights and anti-abortion groups are pouring money into the campaigns. Planned Parenthood has pledged a seven-figure donation to support Protasiewicz in the general election, and national anti-abortion groups such as the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and Students for Life are throwing monetary support behind Kelly.
Nearly $10 million was already spent in the primary, almost surpassing Wisconsin’s 2020 record for the most expensive Supreme Court race, which clocked in at $10.4 million for the entire campaign. Before the primary was even completed, groups had already pledged another $9 million to the winners. The contest has the potential to become the most expensive state Supreme Court election in U.S. history; the current record holder is an Illinois race in 2004 that cost $15 million.
Primary turnout was high
Voters are clearly motivated, with nearly a million turning out for the primary, which tracks for a record number of voting in the general election in an off year.
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“I think we are going to see high turnout from both sides, and why wouldn’t we?” Mark Jefferson, executive director of the state Republican Party, told Politico. “Everything is on the line.”
There were four names on the primary ballot — two conservatives and two liberals. Protasiewicz and the other liberal-leaning judge garnered 54% of the vote, while Kelly and the other conservative-leaning judge netted 46%.
