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August 29, 2023

Recently a passionately committed Donald Trump supporter asked me who I would back in 2024 and why are so many pundits claiming that Trump cannot win the general election.  In my reply I wrote that while I like both DeSantis and Trump, I will enthusiastically support whoever wins the nomination.  My answer to the second part of the question is yes, Trump can win.  But he needs to recognize reality and have the strategy in place for an exceedingly difficult election due to the unknown repercussions of the despicable lawfare being waged against him as well as the political and electoral landscape in present-day America.  Thus far there has been no indication that the Trump campaign or the Republican National Committee understands or has developed any strategy to win the general election.

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The ongoing lawfare against Trump will, in all likelihood, spawn a number of uncontrollable factors.  Among them will be Trump’s ability to campaign and the necessity of spending massive sums of campaign cash on legal expenses instead of opposing the Democrat nominee.  Additionally, the outcomes of the public trials that will be held prior to the election could potentially result in dramatic negative reactions by the electorate directed towards Trump.

Therefore, the Republican primary voter needs to know what will be the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee strategy if voter sentiment turns markedly against him and/or multiple states arbitrarily and unconstitutionally attempt to disqualify Trump from their ballots based on the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment.

The political and electoral landscape facing Donald Trump can be broken down into four component parts: 1) the impact of changing voter demographics, 2) the perception of Trump by the voters, 3) the unique status of five battleground states, and 4) the high probability that Joe Biden, due to rapidly deteriorating health and mounting scandals, will drop out of the race,

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The Brookings Institution recently published an article highlighting how the younger voters (Millennials and Generation Z) are poised to upend American politics. In 2024 they will account for over half of the total population and nearly half of all registered voters.  The Democrats have long focused on registering and engaging this voting bloc while the Republicans have essentially ignored them.

In the 2022 mid-terms younger voters backed Democrat Senate and House candidates by a 57-40% margin.  Senator John Fetterman, despite being noticeably incapacitated from a stroke, won in Pennsylvania because 63% of 18-44-year-olds voted for him.

Trump has never been viewed favorably by this voting bloc.  Even in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when the economy was soaring, his favorability rating among voters 18-34 years-old was just 37%. At present younger voters are unhappy with Biden and still have an extraordinarily  low favorable (23%) opinion of Trump. 

However, there is also ample evidence that a significant segment of younger voters are beginning to shift rightward and are open to conservative principles after experiencing the failures of Democrat Party governance.  Trump and the Republicans must exploit that opening if he is to win.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump each won 88% of the vote of their respective parties, the deciding factor — Trump won Independents by a 46-42% margin. In 2020 Biden and Trump each won 94% of the vote of their respective parties, the deciding factor — Biden won Independents by a 54-41% margin.

However, per a poll published on August 15, 2023, Independents believe by a 57-37% margin that Trump should be prosecuted for attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 election.  Further, 63% of Independents stated that the trials should take place before the election. And 53% believe he is guilty of the alleged crimes in the election subversion indictment.