It goes without saying that a poll’s validity can vary wildly from poll to poll depending on a number of factors, such as methodology and margins for error.
Polling can also generally be affected by the institution conducting it.
One would generally assume more favorable outcomes for Democrats when polling is conducted by more left-leaning outlets, like The Washington Post, while one may expect more Republican-favoring outcomes from polls conducted by more centrist outlets, like the Wall Street Journal.
Given that, it’s hardly a surprise that NBC News polls looking at hypothetical Joe Biden – Donald Trump match-ups (dating back to when Trump was the incumbent and Biden was the challenger) have always tilted in the Democrat’s favor.
Until now.
For the first time ever, an NBC News poll pertaining to a Biden-Trump hypothetical general election match-up has tilted in Trump’s favor — ever so slightly.
(Of note, as NBC News is quick to point out, “the deficit is well within the poll’s margin of error for a contest that’s still more than 11 months away.”)
Looking at the numbers, however, even a slim lead within the margin of error could be a massive headache for Biden because of the general trend that these NBC News polls have taken.
As recently as July 2023, Biden was enjoying a 49-45 lead over Trump (which exceeds the margin of error of 3.1 percentage points), with just 6 percent of voters unsure or undecided.
Do you think Trump will win the 2024 general election?
Yes: 100% (1 Votes)
No: 0% (0 Votes)
In September, Biden slipped into a tie with Trump, with both men nabbing 46 percent of the votes, and 8 percent of voters were unsure.
And now, in November, Trump has — again, for the first time in an NBC News poll — overtaken Biden 46-44, with 10 percent of voters now unsure.
It’s an ominous development for an incumbent Democratic president who is struggling to find much good news with each subsequent poll observing the very likely 2024 general election match-up of Trump vs. Biden.
Some interesting demographic breakdowns of this new NBC News poll:
- Biden leads Trump among black voters (a whopping 69 to 20 percent advantage), women (52 percent to 39 percent), and white voters with college degrees (51 percent to 40 percent.)
- Trump leads Biden among white voters (53 percent to 39 percent), male voters (55 percent to 35 percent) and rural voters (58 percent to 35 percent.)
One large issue for Biden that NBC identifies is the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict that has consumed that region.
The poll found that the overwhelming majority of Americans (56 percent to 34 percent among registered voters) disapprove of Biden’s handling of the conflict.
Even without the NBC News poll, the division within the Democratic Party over this conflict is visibly palpable, with some Democrats even voting with Republicans to censure Rep. Rashida Tlaib — a particularly outspoken pro-Palestinian voice among U.S. lawmakers.
In turn, Tlaib has continuously skewered Biden over his handling of the Gaza war, and that seems reflective of Biden’s poor polling with regards to what’s happening in Israel.
As one final, somber note from these NBC News polls for Team Biden, any hopes that Trump will be knocked off by a GOP primary challenger are increasingly less likely, as the former president commands a massive lead over his GOP contemporaries.
