Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unveiled a digital advertising campaign in South Carolina this week, roughly 18 months before Republican voters are scheduled to begin choosing their next presidential nominee.
In the 30-second spot, the first from Pompeo’s political action committee, CAVPAC, he celebrates the Supreme Court decision in Kennedy v. Bremerton School District that sided with a high school football coach who sued on First Amendment grounds after being fired for praying at midfield. It’s a smart message, one sure to attract the attention of grassroots conservatives — an advertisement any ambitious Republican politician might air.
But this is Mike Pompeo, and he chose to run his PAC’s first spot in South Carolina, a key primary state on his party’s presidential nominating calendar. The Palmetto State votes third, after Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively, and goes first in the South, home to millions of committed Republicans. The move is the clearest signal yet of Pompeo’s interest in seeking the White House in 2024.
“I’m Mike Pompeo, and this is who we are,” the former secretary of state says in the ad. “Let’s make sure our religious freedom and our right to pray are never canceled.”
Pompeo, 58, is a former congressman from Kansas and a four-year member of the Trump administration, first as director of the CIA, then as secretary of state.
Encouraged to run for Senate in his home state in 2020, Pompeo demurred, partly because he covets the presidency and did not want to be hamstrung, politically, by returning to Capitol Hill. Pompeo’s political activity since leaving government only reinforced the obvious. He has spent the last 18 months traveling the country and stumping for GOP candidates running in the midterm elections, travels that have taken him to early presidential primary states.
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But the former secretary of state’s new advertisement in South Carolina ups the ante — as did a recent interview he sat for with Major Garrett of CBS News. During a fascinating conversation for Garrett’s podcast The Takeout, Pompeo discussed his consideration of a 2024 presidential bid more extensively than he has previously.
Pompeo reiterated to Garrett that former President Donald Trump’s 2024 plans would have no bearing on his decision and talked about what it would be like to run against his old boss, a man he says he has no animosity toward and for whom he was proud to work. And, oh, by the way, the former secretary of state said his extraordinary weight loss is not related to his White House preparations.
“If we decide that we’re going to do this, if we’re going to present the case for Mike Pompeo for president — if we’re going to do that — you can’t do it from a standing start,” he said. “We’re doing the kinds of things one might do, at least as we see it, to get ready for that moment.”
And as to whether it would be uncomfortable to run against Trump? “I’m sure in some ways it would be uncomfortable. I remember the Washington Post article that described me as his most loyal Cabinet member,” Pompeo said. “I suspect it would be a little uncomfortable for him, too. We worked so closely together.”
Now, to the field …
Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District. You know an electoral wave is coming when the party that has no business winning a particular House seat is competitive. And that’s the case in Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, according to a new public opinion poll from Suffolk University.
Former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R) led a series of Democrats in hypothetical matchups tested by Suffolk in a survey conducted for the Boston Globe from June 20-22. And Fung didn’t just finish ahead. Versus five of six Democrats tested against Fung, the Republican led by approximately 10 percentage points. Only Democrat Seth Magaziner performed better, trailing Fung 45% to 39%.
So how is a Republican polling this well in a district President Joe Biden won with 56% of the vote in 2020? It might have something to do with the fact that incumbent Rep. Jim Langevin (D) is retiring. But it just as likely has something to do with Biden’s miserable job approval. The president’s statewide rating is 39%, more than 20 percentage points below what he garnered against Trump in this blue state two years ago.
The margin of error in the Suffolk poll is 4.8 points.
Mississippi’s 3rd Congressional District. Something unusual happened Tuesday in the runoff election to pick a Republican nominee in Mississippi’s 3rd District. Incumbent Rep. Michael Guest defeated GOP challenger Michael Cassidy in a landslide, 67.2% to 32.8%, after finishing virtually in a tie with his opponent in round one of the primary June 7.
Not only that, voter turnout in the runoff actually increased compared to participation in the initial primary — no doubt that increased pool of voters boosted Guest over Cassidy. Typically, incumbents forced into a primary runoff lose, in part because turnout drops and the most committed voters, the ones who show up for round two, support the challenger.
Hat tip to Henry Barbour, a GOP operative in Mississippi and the Republican National Committeeman from his state. Here’s what he tweeted Wednesday: Turnout in the 3rd District Republican runoff was 38% higher than the June 7 primary, with the number of raw votes cast increasing from nearly 49,000 to almost 69,000. “The Guest campaign deserves credit for that,” Barbour said in his Twitter post.
Compare those figures to 2018, when, as would be expected, the total votes cast in the 3rd District runoff dropped to approximately 43,000 from roughly 65,000 in the primary.
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Arizona Senate race. Republican Blake Masters is up with a new television advertisement featuring (who else) Trump. The former president endorsed Masters, making him a front-runner in the Aug. 2 GOP primary with state Attorney General Mark Brnovich and wealthy businessman Jim Lamon.
In the 30-second spot, Trump talks straight to the camera, detailing the reasons he decided to support Masters over his Republican competition while taking a few digs at Brnovich and Lamon. “Blake Masters is an incredible person, a very smart guy, and an America First fighter,” the former president says. “Mark Brnovich and Jim Lamon, on the other hand, will only let you down” — an endorsement combined with the signature Trump unendorsement.
But this ad is a bit different than testimonials we’ve seen before from Trump on behalf of his endorsed candidates. In this spot, Masters is standing right next to Trump, looking on admiringly and saying absolutely nothing — that is, until the very end, when Masters ends the ad by reciting the legally required disclaimer: “I’m Blake Masters and I approved this message.”
