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December 28, 2023

At first glance, Israel appears to have no choice but to buckle under U.S. pressure. After all she needs the resupply of munitions and the protection of the U.S. veto at the United Nations Security Council.

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The New York Times reports The U.S. wants Israel to use elite forces to rescue hostages and kill Hamas leaders.

“Mr. Biden wants Israel to switch to more precise tactics within three weeks, or soon thereafter. The officials asked for anonymity to discuss the president’s thinking.

“The new phase that the Americans envision would involve smaller groups of elite forces that would move in and out of population centers in Gaza, carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said.”

But I submit they do have a choice.  Time is on her side.  Let us assume that Israel switches to the tactics demanded by Biden but takes her time in finishing off Hamas.  In the meantime, Israel should agree to nothing. She should refuse to discuss the day after and she shouldn’t agree to a ceasefire.

If so, it is Biden who is left with few choices.  Since Israel is abiding by Biden’s demands but slow walking the war, Biden has no option but to wait for the destruction of Hamas however long it takes. The destruction of Hamas is central to Biden’s plans to advance the Two-State Solution.  Since Israel would be following Biden’s demands, Biden will have to continue to veto any calls for a ceasefire. To my mind, Biden would be stymied. His dreams of advancing the Two-State Solution (TSS) on the back of the Gaza War or reforming the Palestinian Authority would be put on hold until Hamas is destroyed which could take a year particularly if Israel takes it real slow in the name of protecting her soldiers.

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Thus, all Biden’s plans would be for naught. He would find himself in six months in the election season which will cause him to restrain himself, not Israel. Also, Israel could look forward to discussing the day after with a Trump administration.

On the other hand, Caroline Glick reports:

“They (Biden admin) do not seek the eradication of Hamas and the return of the hostages. They seek the end of the war and the return of the hostages. And at the end of the war, they want to rebuild Gaza. They want to use the war’s end as a means to compel Israel into a “peace process.” The goal of that process is to establish a Palestinian state in Gaza, and Judea and Samaria, led by terrorists from the Palestinian Authority which, like Hamas, seeks the annihilation of the Jewish state.”

Assuming that is the case, Israel should still not agree to a ceasefire. Instead she should follow Biden’s advice:

“The new phase that the Americans envision would involve smaller groups of elite forces that would move in and out of population centers in Gaza, carrying out more precise missions to find and kill Hamas leaders, rescue hostages and destroy tunnels, the officials said.”

In addition, following such tactics would reduce Israel’s need for resupply and that would render her more immune to U.S. pressure.

During this time, Israel could demobilize much of her army and thus return her economy to normal. Of course, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would remain on the northern border. Such a policy would further deter Hezb’allah. It may even make it possible for many northern residents to return to their homes.

And she could search the world for munitions and set up munitions production in Israel. With every passing month, Israel would be stronger and Biden weaker.