The May 26 runoff election between Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could be the most consequential Republican primary since the Tea Party era.
This race pits a 63-year-old conservative upstart Vox called “MAGA’s top lawyer” against a 74-year-old four-term incumbent who was, for most of his career, viewed as an old-guard establishment figure.
The contest has all the features of past Republican royal rumbles: purity versus pragmatism, baggage versus boredom, enthusiasm versus electability, and appeals to President Donald Trump.
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It also tests Trump’s iron grip on the GOP, as Paxton’s case against Cornyn rests heavily on the senator’s alleged insufficient fealty to MAGA. But there have been persistent rumblings that Trump will throw his support behind Cornyn anyway because Republican insiders view him as a stronger general election candidate and don’t want to put the Senate in play this November.
While stopping short of tipping his hand, Trump has gone so far as to say the candidate he doesn’t endorse should drop out.
Paxton said on social media that he “would consider dropping out of this race if Senate Leadership agrees to lift the filibuster and [pass] the SAVE America Act,” an election integrity measure backed by most Republicans on Capitol Hill but that stalled in the Senate.
“John Cornyn is a coward who has refused to support abolishing the filibuster to pass this bill,” he added. “Now, Fake News reporters and the establishment are trying to destroy me with misinformation.”
Cornyn shot back on Saturday that he would support the use of the “talking filibuster” to pass this bill. “Contrary to fake news in the twitterverse: I have supported the Save America Act from day one,” he wrote on X. “I will happily support the ‘talking filibuster’ if that’s what it takes to pass this into law.” He tagged Trump in the post.
The senator hasn’t been shy about attacking Paxton either. “Over the next 12 weeks, Texas Republican primary voters will hear more about my record of delivering conservative victories in the United States Senate, and learn more about Ken’s indefensible personal behavior and failures in office,” he told reporters after narrowly finishing first in the initial round of voting. “Just like the primary, we have a plan to win the runoff, and we are in the process of executing it. Judgment day is coming for Ken Paxton.”
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Cornyn is likely to go sharply negative against Paxton, hitting the attorney general on his divorce, alleged extramarital affair, and charges of self-dealing.
“He believes that all his misbehavior and his scandals are sort of baked in the cake, and he’s won a couple of elections since much of that has come out,” Cornyn said. “But there is much more that will come out in the runoff and which will demonstrate his unfitness for office and his liability, of his potential liability of him being the nominee in November.”
Paxton has been a close Trump ally, but bucking the president on staying in the race after a still-hypothetical Cornyn endorsement could create tensions. “Well, that’s bad for him to say,” Trump told Politico after learning Paxton said he wouldn’t exit the runoff if he doesn’t get the president’s endorsement. “That is bad for him. So maybe, maybe that leads me to go the other direction.”
Grassroots conservatives don’t believe the Republican-controlled Senate has done enough to advance Trump’s agenda or nominees. They are especially skeptical that Cornyn will become more Trump-friendly if elected to a fifth term that would extend all the way to 2033 — long after Trump’s second, nonconsecutive term ends. They often point to Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the former longtime GOP floor leader who broke with Trump, as an example.
Many other national and Texas Republicans fear Paxton will jeopardize their hold on what should be a safe seat or require tens of millions of dollars in assistance that could be better spent defending the GOP majority elsewhere. This concern is particularly acute because the Democrats are avoiding a runoff and have nominated state Rep. James Talarico, who was seen as the stronger of the two major candidates in their primary.
Blue Texas has been a Democratic pipe dream for years, but the possibility exists that a bad national environment for the GOP, a weak Republican nominee, and a strong Democrat could create the perfect storm necessary for an upset. From Christine O’Donnell to Herschel Walker, candidate quality has cost Republicans winnable Senate seats dating back to 2010, when the Tea Party wave election failed to flip the upper chamber.
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Democrats are hoping to contest Republican-leaning states such as North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas while toppling blue-state Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and defending seats they hold in Georgia and New Hampshire. That would give them a narrow path to take control of the Senate, which is currently 53-47 Republican.
Cornyn took 41.9% to Paxton’s 40.7% in the first round of balloting Tuesday, forcing a runoff between the top two vote-getters. Talarico defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) 52.5%-46.2%, allowing him to proceed to the general election.
