Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are vying for the swing states to win the White House, but the vice president has an edge with independent voters across the pivotal states.
Polls released by the Hill-Emerson College on Thursday and conducted in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show Harris leading Trump with independent voters in all those states except Nevada. With all likely voters, the states are split between the two candidates, with Pennsylvania being a tie, but each contest is within the margin of error.
With independent voters, Harris leads Trump in Arizona by 6 points, Georgia by 16 points, Michigan by 3 points, North Carolina by 2 points, Pennsylvania by 8 points, and Wisconsin by 9 points. In Nevada, Trump holds a 6-point advantage over Harris with independent voters.
Among all likely voters, Trump leads Harris in Arizona, 50%-47%, North Carolina, 49%-48%, and Wisconsin, 49%-48%. Harris leads Trump in Georgia, 49%-48%, Michigan, 50%-47%, and Nevada, 49%-48%. In Pennsylvania, Harris and Trump are tied, 48%-48%.
“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement.
“Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020,” he added. “In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”
The poll released Thursday comes less than a day after a Fox News poll showed Harris and Trump also neck and neck in swing states. The poll released Wednesday evening showed Harris with a tight lead in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, while Trump maintained a narrow advantage in North Carolina.
Harris is campaigning in the swing state of Georgia on Thursday alongside running mate Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), while Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is reportedly holding a fundraiser for Trump in the Peach State. Harris and Walz will sit down for a prime-time interview with CNN on Thursday, marking their first sit-down interview of the campaign.
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Trump is campaigning in Michigan and Wisconsin, two battleground states, on Thursday, with 68 days until Election Day and early voting set to start in some states in the coming weeks.
The Cook Political Report has rated all the states polled in the survey released Thursday as “toss-up” contests in the presidential election.
