President Donald Trump is likely to be impeached by the House by the end of his term, according to the prediction platform Polymarket.
Traders on Polymarket price the odds that the House will pass articles of impeachment against the president before he leaves office at 69%, as of Tuesday afternoon. Leading Democrats in Congress have deliberately avoided impeachment rhetoric, though their stances could change if they see favorable results in November’s midterm elections.
Polymarket reflects the views of participants willing to stake cryptocurrency on certain outcomes. Its forecasts often fluctuate in response to new information, as traders can buy and sell shares at any time. In March, for example, Trump’s odds of impeachment on Polymarket were 45%.
Polymarket’s odds that Trump will be impeached in 2026 currently hover around 6%. Articles of impeachment require a majority vote in the House. Democrats are currently six votes short of a majority, though they are favored to win back the House in November.
Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) introduced seven articles of impeachment on various charges against Trump in April. House Democrats told the Washington Examiner at the time that they believed that Thanedar’s efforts would be unsuccessful.
“We’ve impeached him twice. We don’t have the votes,” Rep. Becca Balint (D-VT) said. “Republicans didn’t do anything when there was an insurrection, when people were fearing for their lives, and they wouldn’t vote to convict. The folks in those seats haven’t changed.”
The Constitution gives Congress the power to remove the president from office for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Articles of impeachment must originate in the House.
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Polymarket does not factor in the possibility of the Senate voting to convict Trump. Conviction requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate, an unlikely outcome given the upper chamber’s partisan balance. Democratic impeachment efforts against Trump in 2020 and 2021 both failed in the Senate.
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, sits on the Polymarket’s advisory board, though the platform is currently unavailable to U.S. consumers pending regulatory action.
