Progress in Operation Epic Fury has been “relatively positive” with U.S. and Israeli forces causing significant damage to Iran’s military capabilities, according to a new assessment released by the Institute for the Study of War. However, more time is required for the joint U.S.-Israel military operation to achieve its objectives.
“The war in Iran is currently in a phase in which the military trajectory is relatively positive: the United States is steadily destroying Iran’s ability to use its most essential tool in the war — drone and missile attacks — which in turn underpin the entire Iranian strategy,” read a post on X by the Institute for the Study of War.
“Iran has still done some damage to U.S. forces, and it is still firing drones and missiles, though the overall attack rate is slowly decreasing,” ISW claimed. “These attacks still pale in comparison to the major attacks Iran sought to conduct in an existential war and have caused neither operationally significant damage nor widespread casualties.”
ISW’s report comes amid criticism of Operation Epic Fury, including some who have insinuated that the military operation is a failure or that things are going badly. For example, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) posted on X on Saturday, criticizing the military strikes, stating that President Donald Trump “lost control of the war.”
“It’s crystal clear now that Trump has lost control of this war,” said Murphy. “He badly misjudged Iran’s ability to retaliate. The region is on fire.”
The ISW report paints a different picture of the operation than Murphy, highlighting many successes of the military strikes and how they have hampered much of Iran’s war strategy. Furthermore, ISW’s assessment noted that any categorizations declaring Operation Epic Fury as a failure were hasty generalizations unsupported by facts.
“The US-Israeli combined force will need time to achieve its military objectives and prevent Iran from inflicting further political and economic pain upon the United States and its allies in the region, but the campaign remains incomplete, and it is too soon to forecast its outcome,” read the ISW report. “Declaring it an operational failure is unquestionably premature.”
Furthermore, the ISW report cited that U.S. and Israeli strikes have “focused on stopping drone, ballistic missile, and traditional naval attacks most urgently because these assets are the most essential Iranian tools that Tehran needs to execute its strategy. As a result, ISW predicted that these strikes would “likely knock the drone and missile threat down to levels that would permit renewed maritime transit through the Strait” upon successful completion of its airstrikes and military objectives.
The ISW report noted the early efforts were indeed promising, though much remains to be done before any victory is claimed.
“The US-Israeli combined campaign, which has focused on stopping missile and drone attacks as soon as possible, is successfully limiting attacks on U.S. partners and interests in the region,” read the report. The combined force began this effort on the first day of the campaign, and it has gradually decreased Iran’s ability to fire missiles and drones.”
Additionally, intelligence reports revealed that there has been significant destruction to Iran’s missile launchers and have reportedly eliminated “between 260 and 290 of an estimated 410 to 440 launchers.” Furthermore, Iranian troop morale appears to be low after strikes by U.S. and Israel, according to ISW, with intelligence revealing that Iranian forces are “demoralized, deserting, and refusing orders.”
The situation could change as its only been slightly over two weeks since the conflict began, as ISW noted. However, there have been many positive developments thus far.
“It is far too early to forecast whether the current military campaign will achieve overall political objectives or how long disruptions to the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz will last,” noted the ISW report. “But declaring this operation a military failure is premature while the campaign remains underway and incomplete, particularly as the evidence clearly shows progress being made toward accomplishing its core objectives.”
