The early vote in Virginia’s special election on redistricting has turned out more GOP voters than the 2025 gubernatorial election did, as Democrats look to redraw the state’s map with a 10-to-1 blue district margin.
Virginia is just one day out from its referendum on whether or not to allow the blue state legislature to redraw the state’s congressional map in favor of Democrats, and election forecasters are zeroing in on the state’s early voting numbers. The final early vote tally in Virginia is about 3% more red than the early vote turnout in 2025, according to election forecaster State Navigate.
On Tuesday, Virginians will vote either “yes” or “no” on state Democrats’ mid-decade redistricting that would change the state’s congressional map to favor Democrats 10-to-1, as opposed to their current 6-to-5 ratio.
“Yes has a slight edge in the polls and a much bigger $ edge,” Decision Desk HQ said in a statement. “But No has a real shot at winning as the early vote is less pro-Democratic than it was last November.”
According to data from the Virginia Public Access Project, the two districts with higher early voter turnouts in this election than in 2025 are Virginia’s 6th and 9th congressional districts, each represented by GOP Reps. Ben Cline (R-VA) and Morgan Griffith (R-VA).
The election has many early voters across the board; however, Democrats are also showing up to the polls looking to respond to President Donald Trump‘s redistricting efforts in red states such as Texas. According to VPAP, as of Sunday, over 1.3 million voters cast early ballots in the redistricting referendum, compared to the over 1.4 million early votes in 2025, a resounding early turnout for a special election.
State Navigate’s election forecast predicts an estimated early vote split of about 554,851 Republican ballots to about 802,740 Democratic ballots.
A Washington Post/George Mason University poll from late March found that 52% of surveyed likely voters supported the redistricting measure, while 47% opposed it.
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While Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) has vocally supported the amendment and urged Virginians to vote yes, former Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) has been hitting the campaign trail, urging Virginians to vote no.
Polls for the special election will close on Tuesday at 7 p.m.
