Welcome to Thursday’s Washington Secrets with a look inside how the White House might be approaching the midterm elections. John McLaughlin, Donald Trump’s pollster, runs us through some of his latest numbers (which have a positive take on Trump’s approval rating), and he sets out what the president and Republicans can do to improve what will be a difficult showing in November …
John McLaughlin: The economic issues are the most important national issues right now. The hangover from the Biden inflation of the last four years is still defining the concerns for the average American. This month, our poll found 45% of voters said economic issues.
What is the challenge for Republicans?
McLaughlin: The key thing is, the presidential election in 2024 had 155 million voters coming out, and we got 77 million. Through most of 2025 and in the special elections so far this year, the Trump voters haven’t come back out at the levels that they came out in 2024. So it’s a real challenge for the Republicans that they haven’t found a way to bring Trump voters back out.
How do Trump’s approval numbers play into this?
McLaughlin: The president’s job approval went up a couple of points this month. We ask the question the way we did in the campaign: Do you agree with both his personality and his policies, or just support his policies? If you ask that, then 49% approve, and you [get] 46% disapproval [for] both. But those numbers peaked on Election Day in 2024 because we had a campaign. Now the president’s working at the presidency. He’s accomplishing a great deal, but the Republicans haven’t capitalized on that, and they need to. If I’m a Democrat, you know, I’d be concerned about the Republicans actually moving the agenda, from playing defense about Trump and their agenda, what they’ve gotten done or what not gotten done, versus a contrast election. They’ve got to run a contrast campaign.
Prior to the Iran war, the president had laid out a very good contrast in a very good State of the Union, where Democrats couldn’t side with Americans about deporting criminal illegal aliens, they couldn’t side with Americans on tax cuts, and they disagree with the SAVE Act … which would require proof of citizenship to vote, something supported by 80% of Americans, but Republicans in the Senate can’t get it passed. So it’s creating a gap between Trump voters and people who are coming out this year.
Trump won’t be on the ballot. So they need to have a contrast with the Democrats. Other Democrats can say [they’re] for affordability, when every one of them voted for a tax hike last year, when they voted to kill the Trump tax cuts. They’ve got to run a contrast campaign.
What do Republicans need from Trump?
McLaughlin: He needs a solid contrast with Democrats, probably a new reconciliation bill this year to push for more economic growth. But Republicans are their own worst enemies in that the president proposes very popular ideas, then they don’t get them done. It shouldn’t be that way
Under Chuck Schumer, the Democrats have got a discipline of just trying to stop us from anything that’s positive. They shut down the government, which put some sand in the engine of economic growth. They back Jerome Powell, who’s been keeping interest rates artificially high, which again hurt the economic growth in the country.
So I mean, President Trump, all the good that he’s trying to do, he’s got a real hardcore nemesis in Chuck Schumer, who’s not popular. He’s 32% favorable, 46% unfavorable. So he needs to focus on that.
So who is going to win the House and who will win the Senate?
McLaughlin: There’s still a lot of time left. Right now, the Democrats have the edge, but Republicans are favored to win the Senate. There’s still plenty of time and lots of critical issues got to be addressed and plenty of debates that have to be had.
The last time the Republicans broke the midterm jinx, it was in 2002, and I was working for the RNC. We were able to get out a good, positive message about economic growth. And President Bush was able to keep the country united as he was dealing with the aftermath of 9/11.
President Trump certainly faces very similar challenges. But if he can be successful with economic growth and with protecting Americans, you know, at a time when national security is top of mind, he could be also successful and break that same jinx. The missing part of the equation right now is that we’re playing defense, running against ourselves. We need to play offense and draw a contrast with the Democrats.
Quote of the day
And this is why McLaughlin’s comments are useful. Politico scoops that a major Republican super PAC is warning the Senate majority is at risk.
“As it stands today, our view is that the Republican Senate majority is at risk,” AFP senior adviser Emily Seidel and Executive Director Nathan Nascimento write. “Our internal polling in several battleground states and one-on-one conversations with voters show that for the first time, Democrats are more trusted on the economy and inflation.”
Lunchtime reading
New Kennedy Center leader tells judge two-year closure is critical: The roof is failing, concrete has been shored up to stop it from falling on workers, and water has penetrated vaults housing electrical circuits. Matt Floca, The Kennedy Center’s new executive director, testified about why the cultural center has to close for two years.
The genesis of the King’s triumphant speech in Washington: “Those carefully chosen words were crafted and recrafted by a team of skilled speechwriters, which is believed to have included Sir Clive Alderton, the King’s private secretary and most senior aide at Buckingham Palace; Sir Christian Turner, the United Kingdom’s ambassador to the United States; and Tobyn Andreae, director of communications for the king and queen. Helpfully, Turner’s deputy, James Roscoe, is also well versed in royal protocol and speeches, having worked as the late Queen Elizabeth II’s communications secretary between 2013 and 2016.”
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