The November election is less than six months away and has Republicans and Democrats on edge as control of the country appears unsettled.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday showed former President Donald Trump with leads over President Joe Biden in several swing states and Republican Senate candidates trailing Democrats in those same states. In three states where there is a Senate race, there are significant gaps between the state of the race in the contests.
Nevada
In the Silver State, where Trump lost in both of his previous runs, the former president leads Biden 50% to 38% among likely voters. When considering third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Cornel West, and libertarian candidate Lars Mapstead, Trump holds a 41%-27% advantage over Biden.
While Democrats are sweating in the presidential race, with Trump’s lead outside the margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, they hold a small lead in the Senate race. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leads Republican Sam Brown, 40% to 38%, with 23% of registered voters surveyed saying they were unsure.
Democrats have had success in recent Senate races in the state, with Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) eking out a victory over Republican Adam Laxalt by fewer than 8,000 votes and Rosen unseating former Republican Sen. Dean Heller in 2018.
The Senate race could be pivotal to Republicans winning the chamber in November, and the CookPoliticalReport has rated the contest as a “toss-up.” The presidential race has also been rated as a “toss-up.”
Arizona
In Arizona, Trump looks on track to win back the state he lost in 2020, but another previous statewide election loser could be on track to repeat her feat. In the presidential race, Trump leads Biden 49% to 42% and still maintains a 42%-33% lead when the questioning is opened to third-party candidates.
In the Senate race, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads Republican Kari Lake, 45% to 41%, spelling trouble for the GOP in a prime pickup opportunity. Lake ran for governor in 2022 but lost to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) in a tight race.
The Senate seat is held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who caucuses with Democrats and opted not to seek reelection after one term. The presidential and Senate races in the Grand Canyon State are rated as “toss-up” contests, according to the CookPoliticalReport.
Michigan
Trump also looks poised for redemption in the Great Lakes State after losing in 2020 and his preferred gubernatorial candidate losing in bruising fashion in 2022 — but the Senate race remains uncertain.
The former president leads Biden, 49% to 42%, head-to-head and holds a 38%-36% lead in the survey including third-party candidates. Trump narrowly won the state in 2016 in a major upset but lost the state in his first reelection bid in 2020.
The New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday did not include an update on the Senate race, but Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers appear likely to move on from the August primary to a battle in November.
The battle for the state’s 15 electoral votes is rated as a “toss-up,” but the Senate race is characterized as “lean Democratic,” according to the CookPoliticalReport.
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The Senate has a 51-49 Democratic majority, but with Republicans almost certain to flip West Virginia’s Democratic-held seat, rated as “solid Republican” by the CookPoliticalReport, they will need one more flip to gain outright control of the chamber. Ohio, Montana, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are all seen as competitive races in which the GOP could flip a seat.
In the presidential race, Trump’s consistent leads in polling nationally and in swing states could give the GOP the de facto Senate majority even if no seat besides West Virginia flips, as a Trump vice president could act as a tiebreaker, similar to how Vice President Kamala Harris was in the previous Congress.
