*** Election Night Livewire *** Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens as Insurgent Radicals Fight Democrat Establishment

Abdul El-Sayed is poised to romp over establishment Democrat Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), according to Tuesday primaries in which the radical transformation of the Democratic Party is center stage.

El-Sayed, a public health official and former failed candidate for governor, is the newest progressive darling of the movement increasingly calling the shots in Democrat politics. While he is no formal member of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), the ascendant power center of left-wing American politics, DSA officials like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) have campaigned hard for him, including stops in Michigan.

The race, and a potential El-Sayed victory in November in the general election, could have monumental ramifications.

Unlike New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who was born in Uganda, El-Sayed was born in the United States and therefore eligible to run for president — a post in which he is rumored to harbor ambitions.

Other down-ballot races in Michigan, as well as gubernatorial primaries, are noteworthy. Primaries also took place Tuesday in Virginia, Missouri, Kansas, and Washington.

But the charismatic populist El-Sayed’s ascendance has captivated Washington, Democrats and Republicans alike, with a mixture of awe of his political skills and anxiety over where he might take the party which he has co-opted.

El-Sayed has surged to double-digit leads in most polls with overwhelming grassroots support, despite Stevens having tens of millions of dollars in spending supporting her campaign. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has endorsed her and steered significant party resources her way. AIPAC reportedly has spent over $30 million for Stevens, a primary record for the organization.

But El-Sayed must turn that grassroots support into votes Tuesday, or his Senate hopes — and any ambitions beyond that — could end.

Polls close in Michigan at 8 am ET in most of the state but 9 pm ET (8 pm locally) in the westernmost counties of the Upper Peninsula.

UPDATE 1:58 p.m. ET:

NBC News projects that Abdul el-Sayed will defeat Rep. Haley Stevens. With 89 percent of the vote in, el-Sayed is solidly two points ahead of the congresswoman, whose ran a closer race than most prognosticators expected but whose late election day comeback (which lasted into the morning) fizzled out at the end.

Other outlets and networks may not begin calling the race until the morning but it appears el-Sayed has locked it up in what will be a massive victory for the insurgent left and its takeover of the Democratic Party.

UPDATE 1:53 p.m. ET:

With only around 64,000 cotes left in Wayne County and around 23,000 votes remaining in Macomb County according to MS Now’s Steve Kornacki, Stevens’s path continues to narrow, but it exists. She is now more than 25,000 votes behind el-Sayed who has had a handful of good returns come in late. He is at 48.9 percent to her 47.1 percent.

UPDATE 1:49 p.m. ET:

With 70 percent of the votes in, DSA-backed McKinney leads Thanedar 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent. Thanedar is hanging in there despite expectations he would be soundly defeated. A McKinney victory over an incumbent – and one formerly aligned with DSA – would be a feather in the cap of the socialists.

UPDATE 1:42 a.m. ET:

Stevens is less than 20,000 votes behind el-Sayed. She has 47.3 percent to his 48.7 percent, with 86 percent in. She is whittling away, with a handful of significant boxes remaining. But this is as close as she has been all night.

UPDATE 1:24 a.m. ET:

The New York Times now predicts el-Sayed will win by 1.4 percent, but there’s a long row to hoe before this race is called. When addressing his supporters, el-Sayed said we will not know who wins until tomorrow (although presumably he meant the day after Election Day, and Wednesday has already begun).

UPDATE 1:18 p.m. ET:

Back to the numbers. Wayne County continues to be kind to Stevens. She is within 2 points with 82 percent of the projected totals in, just under 23,000 votes behind el-Sayed. its 48.9 percent for el-Sayed to Stevens’ 47.1 percent.

Her path is still narrow, perhaps too narrow, but she continues to winnow away at his early lead.

UPDATE 1:15 a.m. ET:

El-Sayed speaks about the money he will have to overcome to beat Mike Rogers in November. He says “inshallah,” an Islamic term roughly translating to “if god wills it,” which elicited wild cheers.

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2084868801322274842/video/1?s=46

UPDATE: 1:10 a.m. ET:

El-Sayed takes the stage but does not declare victory, noting that it takes a long time to count votes in Michigan because its a big state (that is not the reason).

He notes that he is still standing despite being outspent 11-to-1.

UPDATE 1:03 a.m. ET:

Shri Thanedar, who was aligned with the DSA before splitting with them after the October 7 terrorist attacks on Israel, is behind DSA-backed Donavan McKinney. With half the projected vote in, McKinney is up over the incumbent 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

Remember in June, when three DSA candidates won New York house seats in the Mamdani massacre? The party has continued its ascent, winning a handful of seats since then in addition to more tonight with Lawrence and probably McKinney, although Bush lost.

UPDATE 12:59 a.m. ET:

How significant is the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan? None other than president Trump is locked in on it.

Trump, arriving in Las Vegas after RNC events in Los Angelos, asks a reporter about “who won the election with Abdul.” The reporter responds that it is likely to be a long night.

UPDATE 12:57 a.m. ET:

Stevens speaks to supporters  just before 1 a.m. and says “friends, I am feeling good about this race.”
She touts that they are still waiting on results from Detroit (in Wayne County), as well as Flint, Muskegon County, and Macomb County.

https://x.com/Acyn/status/2084865573390102661/video/1?s=46

UPDATE 12:41 a.m. ET:

A spokesman at el-Sayed’s election night party said over the loudspeaker that the candidate will address the crowd before 1 a.m. ET.

UPDATE 12:19 a.m. ET:

We aren’t done yet. But the New York Times has changed its forecast to lean towards el-Sayed. Stevens is running out of places where she can find votes and will need to overperform in unexpected places. Sayed is still up three points and change with just under two-thirds of the projected vote in.

A total route in Flint, loaded with black voters who overwhelmingly back Stevens, could go a long way towards keeping Stevens in this into the morning hours, but it won’t deliver it for her.

UPDATE 11:49 p.m. ET:

El-Sayed is maintaining a slim lead, currently just over two percent with 56 percent of the vote in. Wayne County, home to Detroit and where Stevens needed to run up the score, is about a fifth of the state’s projected vote. The current numbers appear to reflect that most of Detroit’s votes have come in, which would mean Stevens’ path to further shrinking el-Sayed’s margin might be narrower than she needs.

UPDATE 11:46 p.m. ET:

The AP called the race for Lawrence, a big time victory for the DSA. Trump won this district last year by just one point.

UPDATE 10:54 p.m. ET:

DSA candidate William Lawrence is leading in the Democrat primary in Michigan’s 7th district. Lawrence has 42.7 percent with Bridget Brink a distant second at 29.5 percent and Matt Maasdam nipping her heels at 27.8 percent. Just over half the projected vote has been county.

The winner will face Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, who won the district after the Democrat Slotkin abandoned the seat to run for Senate. The district is considered a rare true tossup.

This is another win for the DSA as its candidates are waging a hostile takeover against the Democratic Party.

UPDATE 10:39 p.m. ET:

Haley Stevens is performing ahead of expectations and has a legitimate chance of an upset. She has run up the score in rural counties, and black voters are keeping her in the game.
The race will come down to Wayne County, which has black voter-rich Detroit but also Dearborn which is heavily Muslim and likely to boost el-Sayed.

With around 35 percent of projected votes in, el-Sayed only has around 50 percent to Stevens’ 47. The gap continues narrowing.

UPDATE 10:34 p.m. ET:

The Michigan race at the center of tonight’s attention might not be called for awhile, if past is prologue. In 2024, which was a presidential year and therefore a much higher turnout, only 50 percent of the vote was reported by midnight, Zachary Donnini reported earlier in the day. Stay tuned for updates throughout the evening.

UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET:

The AP called the Michigan gubernatorial primary for Rep. John James, who had been endorsed by Trump. It’ll be James versus Jocelyn Benson.

James was a reliable ally of Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in Washington after voting against Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) on the House floor when Jordan was the House Republican Conference’s nominee for speaker.

UPDATE 10:18 p.m. ET:

Is Haley Stevens heading for the update of the cycle?

Probably not, but she’s running a much more competitive race than many polls suggested. This race may not be called until late this evening.

UPDATE 10:15 p.m. ET:

Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) would not appear to be in danger of being ousted. He is a Democrat in Michigan’s reliably blue 13th district, and he has been vocal in his opposition to Trump.

But Thanedar is being challenged by DSA candidate Donavan McKinney, who has immense grassroots support and the backing of the DSA machinery. And Thanedar has rubbed many of his colleagues in Washington the wrong way, leading to little institutional support in the form of endorsements and dollars.

Donavan is widely believed to have the advantage over Thanedar, and early returns show the DSA candidate with a big early lead over the Indian-born Thanedar, who has made recruiting more Indian-Americans for office a major message of his campaign.

UPDATE 10:09 p.m. ET:

Rep. John James (R-MI) leads in the Republican gubernatorial primary in Michigan. James was endorsed by Trump.

With only about 26 percent of the projected vote total in, James has 50.5 percent, ahead of Perry Johnson’s 35.9 percent. The winner will face Benson.

UPDATE 10:05 p.m. ET:

El-Sayed leads Stevens with 51 percent of the vote to her 45 percent. Only about 26 percent of the projected vote is in.

On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rogers cleared the field with the help of Washington power brokers and eventually President Trump. He lost the 2024 race against now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) despite Trump winning the state. But that primary was contested, with Rogers only possessing a few months after the primary to consolidate support and race money as the party’s nominee. He won’t have those excuses this time. And if el-Sayed wins as expected, he will have the opponent he and Washington Republicans have wanted.

UPDATE 10:00 p.m.ET:

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is projected by the AP to win the Democrat nomination for governor in Michigan. Benson is perhaps best known for getting slapped down by the U.S. Supreme Court for trying to use the 14th Amendment to unconstitutionally block Donald Trump from the ballot in 2024.

UPDATE 9:43 p.m. ET:

Former Rep. Cori Bush is the first national candidate endorsed by the national DSA to lose this cycle, NBC News and others report. She failed to defeat incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell in a rematch with the man who took her out to represent Missouri’s First Congressional District.

A former Black Lives Matter activist, Bush was a constant item of both scandal and ridicule during her tumultuous two terms in the House. She’ll be watching on the sidelines again next Congress.

Support for Israel was at the heart of the campaign, with the former Squad member Bush making her support for the pro-palestinian movement a central plank of her campaign. A super PAC linked to AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups contributed to Bell enjoying a 27-to-1 spending advantage.

Bradley Jaye is Political Editor for Breitbart News. Follow him on X/Twitter and Instagram @BradleyAJaye.