September 25, 2022
Recent OPEC oil production numbers show the cartel's members are missing their production targets, jeopardizing President Joe Biden's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia to request more oil imports.

Recent OPEC oil production numbers show the cartel’s members are missing their production targets, jeopardizing President Joe Biden’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia to request more oil imports.

Hedge Fund Bison Interests tweeted this week about the reports on the production, which showed that only Gabon and South Sudan have hit production goals.

“OPEC+ missed their #oil output target even more in May. Short thread with charts,” Bison Interests tweeted.

The hedge fund also highlighted monthly and barrels per day. “This was the worst month for OPEC+ since we started sharing comments on this. Highlights (all in MM bbl/d),” Bison Interests tweeted. “Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 37.60, falling short of the 40.37 quota by 2.77 MM bbl/d.”

“17/19 OPEC+ countries (excluding the exempt) missed their production quotas, the highest number of misses ever since we started sharing comments on this,” Bison Interest tweeted.

The hedge fund also noted that Russian production is up materially for now.

“Worth noting,” Bison Interests tweeted.

CNBC reported on the OPEC+ not meeting production targets and having limited spare capacity to increase output, according to analysts:

The alliance on [June 2] said they would increase production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August to bring output cuts to an end earlier than previously agreed.

OPEC and its allies decided to take nearly 10 million barrels off the oil market in 2020 when Covid first hit and demand evaporated.

OPEC+ has “kind of broken down,” the lead analyst of an oil research firm said after oil prices rose despite the alliance announcing that it would increase supply more quickly.

CNBC interviewed Paul Sankey of Sankey Research.

“The whole system of OPEC has kind of broken down right now,” Sankey said.

“Saudi has to make a choice — do we let the price go higher while maintaining a super emergency, super crisis level of spare capacity?” Sankey said.

“Or do we add oil into the market and go to effectively almost zero spare capacity, and then what happens if Libya goes down?” Sankey said.

Follow Penny Starr on Twitter.