If the past is any guide, the polling coming in during the closing days before Tuesday’s election looks very good for Republican Donald Trump.
As of Monday, the Real Clear Polling average of polls nationally has Trump tied with Democrat Kamala Harris at 48.5 percent.
But he is up 0.7 percent in the seven swing state surveys overall in the RCP average, 48.5 to 47.8 percent.
Breaking down the numbers, that translates to Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, but trailing by 0.4 percent in Wisconsin and 1.2 percent in Michigan.
If the race went exactly as this polling shows, Trump would defeat Harris 287 to 251, according to the RCP interactive map.
Election day is finally upon us!
What do the polls say?More:https://t.co/K7vCIXkmtX#election2024 #vote #politics pic.twitter.com/uqYZoXRHwS
— RealClearPolling (@RCPolling) November 4, 2024
But keep in mind, the polling conducted in both 2016 and 2020 significantly underestimated Trump’s support.
In 2016, the RCP average nationally gave Democrat Hillary Clinton a 3.2 percent advantage, but she only won by 2.1 percent in the popular vote.
Do you think Trump will win?
Yes: 97% (1646 Votes)
No: 3% (45 Votes)
In Michigan, RCP showed Clinton with a 3.4 percent lead, but Trump ended up carrying the state by 0.3 percent.
And Clinton led 6.5 percent in Wisconsin but lost the state by 0.7 percent to Trump.
Switching to 2020, Democrat Joe Biden was ahead of Trump 7.2 percent nationally and won by 4.5 percent.
In Wisconsin, Biden’s lead was 6.7 percent, but he only carried the state by less than one percent.
In Michigan, Biden was ahead by 5.1 percent, but only won by 2.8 percent.
So if the past polling patterns hold, Trump looks to be in a very good place to get a swing state sweep, given Harris’ narrow 0.4 percent lead in Wisconsin and 1.4 percent advantage in Michigan.
The Decision HQ/The Hill average of polls published on Sunday finds Trump ahead in all seven battleground states.
Decision Desk HQ/@thehill Battleground Poll Averages:
Florida – 31 polls
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 51.6% (+6.7)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 44.9%
[R+2.0 since last month]Nevada – 54 polls
🟥 Donald Trump (R): 49.0% (+1.8)
🟦 Kamala Harris (D): 47.2%
[R+2.8 since last month]Georgia – 65…
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2024
However, a New York Times/Sienna College published Sunday showed Harris ahead in Nevada (49 to 46 percent), North Carolina (48 to 46), Wisconsin (49 to 47), Georgia (48 to 47), as well as tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump only led Arizona with a 49 to 45 margin.
The Times added this caveat: “Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again.”
Republican National Committee political director James Blair responded to the Times survey on Sunday on Fox News saying, “In all of the battleground states,…they’ve set the electorate to the left of 2020, which doesn’t comport with what we know, which is that all of these electorates have moved to the right” based on the number who have registered Republican.
Trump Political Director @JamesBlairUSA reacts to the final NYT/Siena Poll: “In all of the battleground states, they’ve set the electorate to the left of 2020, which doesn’t comport with what we know, which is that all of these electorates have moved to the right… They are… pic.twitter.com/PunpICTHRa
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) November 3, 2024
“They are putting some cover out there because they are going to under represent President Trump’s support,” he added.
On Monday, Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “Our internal polls have President Trump leading in every key battleground state. We are cautiously optimistic about a big victory tomorrow night as long as everyone turns out to vote.”
She pointed to strong early voting numbers for Republicans, arguing that puts Trump in a very good position going into Election Day.
So overall, good news for Trump one day ahead of the big day.
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