Odds are on former President Donald Trump to be elected president, according to three top sites that allow betting on the election.
The prediction odds are what are used by folks who put up money on the contest and are odds as determined by the sites, not public opinion polls.
After a roller coaster of oddsmaking, as of 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, Polymarket put the odds of a Trump victory at 61 percent, while the odds of Vice President Kamala Harris winning were at 39 percent.
The prediction site Kalshi said the odds of a Trump win are 58 percent, while the chances of a Harris win are at 42 percent.
Over at PredictIt, the oddsmakers were more cautious, with Trump given a 52 percent chance of winning against a 48 percent chance for Harris.
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Latest Swing State Odds
🟥 Arizona • Trump 78% – Harris 22%
🟥 Georgia • Trump 70% – Harris 30%
🟥 Pennsylvania • Trump 59% – Harris 41%
❔Nevada • Harris 50% – Trump 50%
🟦 Wisconsin • Harris 54% – Trump 46%
🟦 Michigan • Harris 61% – Trump 39%Polls begin to close… pic.twitter.com/cTg4OG1N3l
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024
The odds of who will win the race between Harris and Trump have fluctuated throughout the campaign and have continued to fluctuate throughout Tuesday.
Will Trump defeat Harris?
Yes: 0% (0 Votes)
No: 0% (0 Votes)
For example, at Kalshi, up until about Oct. 10, Harris and Trump were about even, with the odds of one winning going up a point or so here, down a point or so there.
Trump gained steadily throughout most of October, hitting a high-water mark in the odds market on Oct. 28, when the odds of him winning hit 64.2 percent while Harris bottomed out at 35.8 percent.
Then came a Harris surge that peaked Friday, with the odds of Trump winning going down to 53 percent while Harris was at 47 percent.
On Saturday, however, Trump increased his odds of winning, hitting 56 percent while Harris was at 44 percent, with the odds fluctuating hour by hour as new polls and new sound bites emerged.
Tuesday’s showing by Trump on Polymarket is up from Saturday, when it said there was a 59.4 percent chance of Trump winning the election against a 40.7 chance of Harris winning.
As for control of Congress, Polymarket gave the GOP an 82 percent chance of taking control of the Senate and Democrats a 53 percent chance of taking over the House.
Latest Balance of Power Odds
🟥 Presidency: 59% Republican
🟥 Senate: 82% Republican
🟦 House: 53% Democrat pic.twitter.com/FsRZmBHsQB— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 5, 2024
Axios noted that Trump’s dip in the prediction markets late last week could have nothing to do with the outcome of the election.
“It’s possible that Trump’s odds fell over the weekend because more investors were cashing out their bets,” the site wrote.
Axios also noted that prediction markets have been wrong before where Trump was involved, noting that PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning the day before the 2016 election.
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