The 2024 election year is in full swing, with most states holding primaries on Super Tuesday on March 5. However, five states are hosting either caucuses or primary elections for both parties in January and February, and the results are likely to serve as a precursor to the rest of the election cycle.
While President Joe Biden is likely to be the Democratic presidential nominee, there are three major GOP contenders battling for the Republican nomination. Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire will set the tone for a fierce battle between the top two, with polling indicating that former President Donald Trump’s all-but-assured win could be in jeopardy.
Here are some of the major primaries occurring in the next two months.
Iowa GOP caucuses — Jan. 15
Iowa will hold its Republican presidential caucuses on Jan. 15, beginning the election cycle for the GOP. They have served as the leadoff voting process in presidential elections since the 1970s. While Democratic caucusgoers will have their caucus on Super Tuesday, Republicans will decide their nominee on Monday.
Though Iowa only provides 1.6% of delegates in the presidential election, it historically has boosted candidates who perform as strong as or better than expected. In several recent elections, it has elevated long-shot candidates to the general election.
Six GOP candidates will participate in the caucuses: Trump, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley.
Trump holds the lead in Iowa, and Haley and DeSantis have been battling for second place for months. In the December Iowa poll, 63% of first-time caucusgoers said they would select Trump as their first choice, compared to 19% for DeSantis and 16% for Haley.
Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy have put millions of dollars into campaigning in Iowa to try and sway voters away from Trump, with DeSantis and Ramaswamy visiting all 99 counties, the latter twice.
New Hampshire — Jan. 23
New Hampshire will hold its primaries for both Democrats and Republicans on Jan. 23, but one notable contender’s name will not appear on the ballot: Joe Biden.
Biden’s campaign announced in October that the president would not appear on the ballot for the Granite State after New Hampshire refused to concede its first-in-the-nation Democratic primary spot to South Carolina. Because of Democratic National Committee rules, candidates who participate in an unsanctioned primary event will not receive delegates at the 2024 Democratic National Convention. So, the only Democrats appearing on the ballot on Jan. 23 are Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and Marianne Williamson.
The fight between state and national Democrats over the New Hampshire Democratic primary has escalated dramatically over the past few months. Most recently, the New Hampshire attorney general sent a cease-and-desist letter to the DNC after the national party told state Democrats that they must “educate the public” that the primary will be “meaningless” and candidates “should take all steps possible not to participate.” Attorney General John Formella called the actions by the DNC attempts at “voter suppression” and said his office would take legal action if it continues.
On the other side, eyes will be on the Republican primary to see who claims victory. Trump holds the lead in the state, but strategists say polling indicates there is a substantial path for Haley to narrow the former president’s lead or even overtake him. Haley gained considerable ground in December, and those on the ground talking with voters have speculated that she could win the GOP primary on Jan. 23, especially if there is a significant independent voter turnout.
DeSantis, who was long expected to be Trump’s strongest competitor, has fallen off dramatically in the Granite State, slipping behind Haley, Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Christie dropped out of the presidential race on Jan. 10.
South Carolina — Feb. 3 (Democrats) and Feb. 24 (GOP)
South Carolina will hold its Democratic primary on Feb. 3 after the DNC successfully shifted the Palmetto State to hold first-in-the-nation status in February last year.
Though Biden lost the state to Trump in 2020 by almost 12 percentage points, the Democrats’ selection of South Carolina was the result of a larger goal to find more diverse states to lead off their 2024 presidential primary calendar. The Biden campaign has made a considerable effort to connect with voters in the state, particularly black voters, a voting bloc that helped Biden win the presidency in 2020 but has since trended away from Biden over the economy and other issues. Democratic allies and strategists are concerned that Biden could ultimately lose his reelection bid if the trend continues.
Biden recently visited Charleston at the Mother Emanuel AME Church, the site of an anti-black mass shooting, to talk with black voters in the hopes it would reengage them with the Democratic Party and the voting process in general.
Republicans’ primary will be on Feb. 24, and Trump and Haley are the top contenders. Haley was expected to have an advantage, as South Carolina is her home state and she served as governor from 2011 to 2017. However, Trump continues to hold a strong lead over the former ambassador. A recent Emerson College poll from Jan. 5 found Trump with a 29-point lead over Haley, 54% to 25%.
Like New Hampshire, Haley’s path to victory could rely on the turnout of independent voters. Among that group, the poll found she trailed Trump by only 4 points. However, the establishment Republican group is overwhelmingly backing Trump, who holds a massive 41-point lead among that bloc.
Michigan — Feb. 27
Michigan will hold primaries for both parties on Feb. 27, with 140 delegates going to the Democratic winner and 16 going to the Republican winner.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) signed a law moving the state’s primary up to Feb. 27, which violated the Republican National Committee’s rules. To avoid a national party penalty, the state is sending 16 of its 55 delegates based on the results of the February primary, and the remaining 39 will be allocated to candidates at the state’s convention on March 2.
Trump is the leading Republican candidate in the Great Lakes State. The state has gained attention after a poll released on Wednesday found that Trump leads Biden by 8 percentage points, 47% to 39% — the first time Trump has held a lead over a likely Democratic nominee before an election in Michigan.
Biden, Phillips, and Williamson will appear on the Democratic primary ballot. Trump, Haley, DeSantis, Hutchinson, and Ramaswamy will appear on the GOP ballot.
Nevada — Feb. 6 (Democratic primary) and Feb. 8 (GOP caucus)
Nevada’s Republican primary process proved to be a tense fight for months after the RNC opted to hold its caucuses two days after the state-required primary date as set in a 2021 law. Only the caucus will be used to allocate delegates.
Haley is the only Republican presidential candidate who will appear on the primary ballot, skipping the caucuses, as well. Trump, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy will not be options in the primary, with the candidates instead participating in the RNC-sanctioned caucuses.
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Trump will likely be the Nevada GOP winner after an Emerson College survey of Nevada voters found that the former president held a 65-point lead ahead of DeSantis, 73% to 8%. Strategists said because Haley opted to be on the primary ballot instead of a choice in the caucuses, the former president will not face much competition on Feb. 8.
For Democrats, Biden and Williamson will be on the primary ballot. Phillips will be absent from the ballot, as he missed the deadline to file as a candidate for the Nevada primary.
