In a major shift, Republicans are now favored to maintain control of the House of Representatives according to 2024 election betting odds. The Democratic Party held the betting odds lead for exactly three months consecutively until Thursday.
Former President Donald Trump is on track for a swing-state sweep, as his surge in both the election betting odds and polling averages has him leading in all seven swing states. Trump has jumped to a 21.7-point national betting odds lead, doubling his 10.8-point margin from a week ago, while nearly cutting Vice President Kamala Harris’s national polling lead in half since last week. He now trails by 0.9 points, having narrowed the gap from 1.7.
Democrats held a 10.5-point advantage in the House betting odds last week, which was already down from the 25-point lead they boasted on Oct. 4. The lead changed hands multiple times since Thursday, but Republicans are currently favored by 1 point to control the House, with bettors giving them a 50.5% chance compared to a 49.5% chance for the Democrats.
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On Wednesday, the day before Republicans took the lead in House election betting odds, Harris went on Fox News for a combative interview which saw her odds plummet further. Her “risky” decision apparently did not pay off, as she lost 2.6 relative points to Trump on Wednesday and another 1.8 the following day.
Trump spent his Sunday in Pennsylvania, slinging fries at a Philadelphia McDonalds, participating in a Lancaster town hall, and attending the prime-time Steelers game with Pittsburgh legends Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. He gained 0.6 relative points on Sunday and 3.9 the following day.
Senate shake-up
Republicans have a 67-point advantage to win the Senate, up from 56 points last week. As things stand, the GOP is projected to win 52 seats. However, one 50-50 toss-up from last week is breaking in a big way for the Republican challenger, while three GOP underdogs have mounted a last-minute comeback bid over the past week.
In the Buckeye state, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) had a 50.5% chance to beat Republican challenger Bernie Moreno last week. That’s down to 38% this week, while Moreno currently has a 63% chance to win, according to Polymarket odds.
Bettors last week gave Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick a 23.4% chance to upset Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), Michigan Republican Mike Rogers a 26.5% chance to beat Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), and Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde a 23.5% chance of ousting Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Tightening their races two weeks out from Election Day, McCormick’s winning probability is now up to 31.5%, while Rogers is up to 32.7%, and Hovde is up to 31.8%.
Two other Senate races have tightened up over the last week but continue to have a heavy favorite. In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown has a 21% chance to upset Sen. Jacky Rosen. Last week, Brown only had a 12% chance, according to 2024 election betting odds. In Arizona, MAGA firebrand Kari Lake has a 19% chance to beat Democrat Ruben Gallego, up from 14% last week.
Heavy betting favorites Gallego and Rosen currently lead by 6.3 and 5.4 points in the polls, respectively, while vulnerable Democratic Senators Casey, 1.9, Slotkin, 2.1, Baldwin, 2, and Brown, 0.6, lead by thinner margins.
Expanding the swing state map
There are generally considered to be seven swing states in the 2024 presidential election, and Trump is winning all of them in the odds and polls, according to RealClearPolitics. They are Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. However, if there is going to be a surprise, the odds say it will likely come from one of four states.
Bettors give Trump an outside chance to win Virginia, 16.5%, New Hampshire, 15.5%, Minnesota, 12.4%, and New Mexico, 10.4%. Harris leads in the polls in Virginia by 6.4 points, New Hampshire by 7.8, Minnesota by 4.7, and New Mexico by 7.
Harris’s best chance to expand the electoral map would be to win Florida, Iowa, Ohio, or Texas. Bettors give her a 6.5% chance to win each Republican-leaning state, while Trump leads in the polls in Florida by 5.9, Iowa by 5, Ohio by 6.4, and Texas by 5.7.
If the betting odds and swing state polls hold true and there are no surprises, Republicans would sweep the election with Trump winning 312 electoral votes and the presidency, Republicans holding a 52-seat Senate majority, and the GOP maintaining a majority in the House.
Who will win the popular vote?
In the last week, Trump nearly halved Harris’s national polling lead from 1.7 to 0.9 while doubling his betting odds lead from 10.8 points to 21.7. He has also outperformed the national polling average in the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020.
The former president outperformed national polling by 1.1 points in 2016 and 2.7 in 2020, and if he outperforms the national polling average by a similar margin in two weeks, he will win the popular vote. However, bettors are still pumping the brakes on Trump winning the popular vote.
According to Polymarket odds, bettors give Harris a 15.3-point advantage in the popular vote. They give her a 57.5% chance and Trump a 42.2% chance. Last week, Harris had a 28.4-point advantage in the popular vote, with bettors giving her a 64.1% chance and Trump a 35.7% chance.
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Voter registration numbers show Republicans gaining on Democrats in Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada, while early mail-in voting figures show Republicans have increased their relative shares in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. The data suggest Republicans may see a higher 2024 election turnout than expected, which may contribute to Trump and down-ballot Republicans outperforming the polls.
As things stand, bettors are giving Trump a 60.1% chance to beat Harris according to RealClearPolling, with the most popular platform Polymarket’s odds giving Trump a 66% chance. Harris is nearly as big an underdog as Trump was on Election Day 2020, while Trump is nearing all-time high election odds.
