Following President Donald Trump’s deal with Russia to export diesel fuel into the global market, the administration and its critics have fought over what impact Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries have had on global diesel prices.
On Friday, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Marc Thiessen published a graph provided to him by the Institute for the Study of War, which tracked the price of diesel fuel since August 2025, when Ukraine first began its strikes on Russian refineries in earnest. The graph showed the climb in price over time, with annotations showing major events in Iran and Ukraine that could have had an effect. By his account, the graph conclusively showed that the war with Iran was behind the rise in diesel prices, not Ukraine’s refinery strikes.
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