October 7, 2022
ADP Employment Data Signals Weakest Labor Market Since COVID Collapse

With various sentiment measures of employment sagging notably, and ISM Manufacturing employment dropping into contraction, it was perhaps surprising that analysts expected ADP to show a 300k job gain May (up from the 247k in April). However, the analysts were wrong, very wrong. May showed an addition of only 128k jobs  and April was drastically revised down to 202k addition.

Source: Bloomberg

That is the weakest monthly ADP jobs print since April 2020, led by a plunge in small business employment.

The construction industry also saw job losses...

Both Goods and Services job growth slowed dramatically in May with Services sector additions at their weakest since the COVID lockdowns

“Under a backdrop of a tight labor market and elevated inflation, monthly job gains are closer to prepandemic levels,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“The job growth rate of hiring has tempered across all industries, while small businesses remain a source of concern as they struggle to keep up with larger firms that have been booming as of late.”

Finally, as a reminder, this bodes ill for tomorrow's payrolls print.

Tyler Durden Thu, 06/02/2022 - 08:21

With various sentiment measures of employment sagging notably, and ISM Manufacturing employment dropping into contraction, it was perhaps surprising that analysts expected ADP to show a 300k job gain May (up from the 247k in April). However, the analysts were wrong, very wrong. May showed an addition of only 128k jobs  and April was drastically revised down to 202k addition.

Source: Bloomberg

That is the weakest monthly ADP jobs print since April 2020, led by a plunge in small business employment.

The construction industry also saw job losses…

Both Goods and Services job growth slowed dramatically in May with Services sector additions at their weakest since the COVID lockdowns

“Under a backdrop of a tight labor market and elevated inflation, monthly job gains are closer to prepandemic levels,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“The job growth rate of hiring has tempered across all industries, while small businesses remain a source of concern as they struggle to keep up with larger firms that have been booming as of late.”

Finally, as a reminder, this bodes ill for tomorrow’s payrolls print.