EXCLUSIVE — Following a multimillion-dollar statewide ad buy, a new internal poll claims Bernie Moreno has a slim advantage in the Republican primary for the Ohio Senate seat.
According to a polling memo for the Moreno campaign obtained by the Washington Examiner, Moreno is polling at 15%, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is polling at 14%, businessman Matt Dolan is polling at 13%, and 58% of voters remain undecided.
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The poll included 950 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8%.
So, while Moreno does appear ahead in the polls, the race is still within the margin of error.
“Bernie Moreno’s strength as a candidate is growing, following effective messaging on his biography and support for former President Trump and from Senator J.D. Vance. With continued strong messaging and financial resources, Bernie Moreno is putting himself in position to win the GOP nomination,” the memo reads.
Moreno was also recently endorsed by Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT).
This internal poll from the campaign is different than what the public polling on the race shows. According to recent public polling, LaRose is consistently leading, with Dolan in second and Moreno in third.
This is the first known poll showing Moreno leading the field, and it comes amid a $2 million statewide ad campaign that pushes his conservative credentials and alignment with former President Donald Trump. He was the first candidate to go up on broadcast television.
The ad plays a clip of Trump saying, “We love Ohio and we love Bernie Moreno,” and while the former president hasn’t made an endorsement in the race, Moreno views that running aligned to him will help him come out on top.
The poll was conducted between Nov. 18 and Nov. 20, halfway through the statewide ad buy.
“The effectiveness of the recent television ad purchase has greatly shifted the race in a meaningful way, giving Moreno the most significant momentum in this field,” the memo says.
According to the poll, Trump leads the rest of the Republican field in the presidential primary by 39 points, showing that he is still widely popular in the Buckeye State. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is in second, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is in third.
Each of the three GOP candidates have run for statewide office in the past. Dolan ran for Senate in 2022 but came in third in the primary. Moreno also ran in 2022 but dropped out after having a private conversation with Trump. And LaRose is holding a statewide office as secretary of state.
The winner of the Republican Primary will face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), who has held the seat since 2007. Ohio has been trending Republican over the past decade, having gone for Trump in the past two presidential elections. Since 2011, Brown has been the only statewide elected Democrat in Ohio outside the state Supreme Court justices.
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Ben Kindel, a spokesman for LaRose, cast doubt on the poll, saying, “Just like a used car salesman to exaggerate the value of a product he’s trying to sell. I wouldn’t buy a Porsche from Bernie, and I’m certainly not buying his ‘poll.’ Ohio voters won’t buy his flip flops on immigration, President Trump, or abortion next March either.”
Dolan’s team declined to comment.
