May 19, 2024
Democrats are gaining ground in Pennsylvania, leading their GOP counterparts in the governor’s and Senate races — offering a glimmer of hope as they seek to flip the battleground state blue in November.

Democrats are gaining ground in Pennsylvania, leading their GOP counterparts in the governor’s and Senate races — offering a glimmer of hope as they seek to flip the battleground state blue in November.

Democratic candidate for Senate John Fetterman leads his Republican challenger, Dr. Mehmet Oz, by 10 percentage points, with 51% of registered voters saying they’d vote for Fetterman compared to just 41% for Oz, according to a Marist College poll. Another 7% of voters remain undecided.

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“What is particularly unusual in these numbers, is that, with still six weeks to go, most voters have already picked sides,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Few Keystone voters are undecided or say they support a candidate but might vote differently.”

Among those who say they are “definitely” planning to vote, the gap narrows slightly as 51% say they’d back Fetterman compared to 44% who say they’d vote for Oz, according to the poll. Fetterman holds an advantage over Oz in almost every demographic, with the exception of Republicans, white evangelical Christians, white voters without a college education, and voters living in rural areas.

The Democratic candidate also benefits from a higher favorability rating than Oz, with 45% saying they view Fetterman favorably compared to just 30% for the Republican, the poll shows.

Meanwhile, in the governor’s race, Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro also holds a double-digit lead over his GOP challenger, with 53% of registered voters saying they’d vote for him over Republican Doug Mastriano, according to the poll. That lead remains strong among those who say they “definitely” plan to vote, with 54% backing Shapiro compared to 42% supporting Mastriano.

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The Senate race has emerged as one of the most closely watched elections this midterm cycle after Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) announced in October 2020 that he would not run for reelection, giving Democrats a chance to snag a seat they view as vulnerable and maintain their Senate majority.

The Marist College poll surveyed 1,242 registered voters in Pennsylvania between Sept. 19-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

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