June 21, 2022

Wouldn’t you know, the august central bankers at the Bank of England just admitted that they “underestimated” inflation, as inflation in the UK heads north of 11 percent.

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Just like our own august central bankers at the Federal Reserve Board who were telling us that inflation was “transitory” until the day before yesterday.

I have a question for you noble rulers. If your computer models can’t do a decent job on forecasting inflation, how come we should put any faith in your climate models or your accusations of “disinformation?”

I have a feeling that you guys “know nothing” more than Sgt. Schultz, who made sure never to know anything that might shorten his lunch break.

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I think that even Col. Klink would suspect something was cocked-up on the inflation front, when the S&P rose 40 percent in two years from January 2020 to its peak in January 2022. And the S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Index has risen 39 percent from January 2020 to March 2022 with no peak in sight just yet.

Just sayin’, but the M2 money supply has increased by 40 percent between January 2020 and May 2022.

I am “shocked, shocked” that the 40 percent number is shared between stocks, real estate, and M2. Any gambling going on, Capt. Renault?

If I were a betting man, I would say that consumer prices have only just started to surge. Prices were up less than 2 percent in 2020, but are up 12 percent since January 2021. So my fearless forecast, based on nothing but disinformation, is that by the time that the current “transitory” phase ends, consumer prices will be up 40 percent over January 2020, the day before the start of “haha money printer go brrr.”

Of course, I don’t have any sophisticated inflation computer models on hand, of the kind enjoyed by the most eminent MMT-trained economists, so what do I know?

I’ll tell you what I do know. A government that is governing on the basis of the best science, with competent bureaucrats in the central bank and the health bureaucracy, doesn’t have to stoop to Disinformation Governance Boards in order to defend its narrative. It is committed to the best science, and if folks out there in the hinterland have a problem with the government’s science, then the first thing that a competent government does is check its numbers and its computer models and respond with an honest analysis of the critiques of its bureaucrats.